Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T13:11:09.771Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chance and Macroevolution

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Roberta L. Millstein*
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy, California State University, Hayward

Abstract

When philosophers of physics explore the nature of chance, they usually look to quantum mechanics. When philosophers of biology explore the nature of chance, they usually look to microevolutionary phenomena such as mutation or random drift. What has been largely overlooked is the role of chance in macroevolution. The stochastic models of paleobiology employ conceptions of chance that are similar to those at the microevolutionary level, yet different from the conceptions of chance often associated with quantum mechanics and Laplacean determinism.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © 2000 by the Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Send reprint requests to the author, Department of Philosophy, California State University, Hayward, 25800 Carlos Bee Boulevard, Hayward, CA 94542.

I would like to thank John Beatty, Ron Giere, and Ken Waters for their helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. I also thank the anonymous refereees for their constructive remarks. This work was supported by a Faculty Support Grant from California State University, Hayward.

References

Beatty, John (1984), “Chance and Natural Selection”, Philosophy of Science 51: 183211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beatty, John. (1995), “The Evolutionary Contingency Thesis”, in Wolters, Gereon and Lennox, James (eds.), Concepts, Theories, and Rationality in the Biological Sciences. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 4581.Google Scholar
Bookstein, Fred L. (1987), “Random Walk and the Existence of Evolutionary Rates”, Paleobiology 13: 446464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brandon, Robert and Carson, Scott (1996), “The Indeterministic Character of Evolutionary Theory: No ‘No Hidden Variables’ Proof But No Room for Determinism Either”, Philosophy of Science 63: 315337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Darwin, Charles ([1859] 1964), On the Origin of Species: A Facsimile of the First Edition. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Eble, Gunther J. (1999), “On the Dual Nature of Chance in Evolutionary Biology and Paleobiology”, Paleobiology 25: 7587.Google Scholar
Feller, William (1968), An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Fisher, Daniel C. (1986), “Progress in Organismal Design”, in Raup, David M. and Jablonski, David (eds.), Patterns and Processes in the History of Life. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 99117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flessa, Karl W. and Imbrie, John (1973), “Evolutionary Pulsations: Evidence from Phanerozoic Diversity Patterns”, in Tarling, Donald H. and Runcorn, S. K. (eds.), Implications of Continental Drift to the Earth Sciences. London: Academic Press, 247285.Google Scholar
Flessa, Karl W. and Levinton, Jeffrey S. (1975), “Phanerozoic Diversity Patterns: Tests for Randomness”, Journal of Geology 83: 239248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Futuyma, Douglas J. (1986), Evolutionary Biology. Sunderland: Sinauer Associates.Google ScholarPubMed
Gould, Stephen Jay, Raup, David M., Sepkoski, J. John, Schopf, Thomas J. M. and Simberloff, Daniel S. (1977), “The Shape of Evolution: A Comparison of Real and Random Clades”, Paleobiology 3: 2340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grantham, Todd A. (1999), “Explanatory Pluralism in Paleobiology”, Philosophy of Science 66 (Proceedings): S223S236.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peterson, Jane A. (1983), “The Evolution of the Subdigital Pad in Anolis. I. Comparisons Among the Anoline Genera”, in Rhodin, Anders G. J. and Miyata, Kenneth (eds.), Advances in Herpetology and Evolutionary Biology: Essays in Honor of Ernest E. Williams. Cambridge, MA: Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, 245283.Google Scholar
Raup, David M. (1977), “Stochastic Models in Evolutionary Paleontology”, in Hallam, Anthony (ed.), Patterns of Evolution As Illustrated by the Fossil Record. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 5978.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raup, David M. (1985), “Mathematical Models of Cladeogenesis”, Paleobiology 11: 4252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raup, David M. and Gould, Stephen Jay (1974), “Stochastic Simulation and the Evolution of Morphology—Towards a Nomothetic Paleontology”, Systematic Zoology 23: 305322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raup, David M., Gould, Stephen Jay, Schopf, Thomas J. M. and Simberloff, Daniel S. (1973), “Stochastic Models of Phylogeny and the Evolution of Diversity”, Journal of Geology 81: 525542.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raup, David M. and Marshall, Larry G. (1980), “Variation Between Groups in Evolutionary Rates: A Statistical Test of Significance”, Paleobiology 6: 923.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ridley, Mark (1993), Evolution. Boston: Blackwell Scientific Publications.Google Scholar
Roughgarden, Jonathan (1996), Theory of Population Genetics and Evolutionary Ecology: An Introduction. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Schopf, Thomas J. M. (1974), “Permo-Triassic Extinctions: Relation to Sea-Floor Spreading”, Journal of Geology 82: 129143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schopf, Thomas J. M. (1979), “Evolving Paleontological Views on Determinism and Stochastic Approaches”, Paleobiology 5: 337352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schopf, Thomas J. M., Raup, David M., Gould, Stephen Jay and Simberloff, Daniel S. (1975), “Genomic Versus Morphology Rates of Evolution: Influence of Morphologic Complexity”, Paleobiology 1: 6370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simberloff, Daniel S. (1974), “Permo-Triassic Extinctions: Effects of Area on Biotic Equilibrium”, Journal of Geology 82: 267274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slowinski, Joseph B. and Guyer, Craig (1989), “Testing the Stochasticity of Patterns of Organismal Diversity: An Improved Null Model”, The American Naturalist 134: 907921.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Charles A. F. (1977), “Diversity Associations as Stochastic Variables”, Paleobiology 3: 4148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanley, Steven M., Signor III, Philip W., Lidgard, Scott and Karr, Alan F. (1981), “Natural Clades Differ From “Random” Clades: Simulations and Analyses”, Paleobiology 7: 115127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uhen, Mark D. (1996), “An Evaluation of Clade-Shape Statistics Using Simulations and Extinct Families of Mammals”, Paleobiology 22: 822.CrossRefGoogle Scholar