Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T23:17:04.531Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Jan-Willem Romeijn
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent the theoretical structure underlying the scheme. This is followed by an example of a change of hypotheses. The paper then presents a general framework for hypotheses change, and proposes the minimization of the distance between hypotheses as a rationality criterion. Finally the paper discusses the import of this for Bayesian statistical inference.

Type
Decision Theory
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 72 , Issue 5: Proceedings of the 2004 Biennial Meeting of The Philosophy of Science Association. Part I: Contributed Papers , December 2005 , pp. 1174 - 1186
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Dawid, A. P. (1982), “The Well-Calibrated Bayesian”, The Well-Calibrated Bayesian 77:605–613.Google Scholar
Earman, J. (1992), Bayes or Bust. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Gillies, D. (2001), “Bayesianism and the Fixity of the Theoretical Framework”, in Corfield, D. and Williamson, J. (eds.), Foundations of Bayesianism. Dordrecht: Kluwer, 363–379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kullback, S. (1959), Information Theory and Statistics. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Paris, J. (1994), The Uncertain Reasoner’s Companion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Williamson, J. (2003), “Bayesianism and Language Change”, Bayesianism and Language Change 12:53–97.Google Scholar