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“All Models Are Wrong”

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 October 2020

Richard Jean So
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Extract

Several years ago, the first thing i learned in my introductory statistics class was the following declaration, which the instructor had written in capital letters on the blackboard: “all models are wrong.” Models are statistical, graphic, or physical objects, and their primary quality is that they can be manipulated. Scientists and social scientists use them to think about the social or natural worlds and to represent those worlds in a simplified manner. Statistical models, which dominate the social sciences, particularly in economics, are typically equations with response and predictor variables. Specifically, a researcher seeks to understand some social phenomenon, such as the relation between students' scores on a math test and how many hours the students spent preparing for the exam. To predict or describe this relation, the researcher constructs a quantitative model with quantitative inputs (the number of hours each student spent studying) and outputs (each student's test score). The researcher hopes that the number of hours a student spent preparing for the exam will correlate with the student's score. If it does, this quantified relation can help describe the overall dynamics of test taking.

Type
Theories and Methodologies
Information
PMLA , Volume 132 , Issue 3 , May 2017 , pp. 668 - 673
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 The Modern Language Association of America

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