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Mass-gathering Health Research Foundational Theory: Part 2 - Event Modeling for Mass Gatherings

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 November 2014

Sheila A. Turris ,
Adam Lund ,
Alison Hutton ,
Ron Bowles ,
Elizabeth Ellerson ,
Malinda Steenkamp ,
Jamie Ranse  and
Paul Arbon
Sheila A. Turris
Affiliation:
Department of Emergency Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada School of Nursing, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada Justice Institute of British Columbia, New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Adam Lund*
Affiliation:
Department of Emergency Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Justice Institute of British Columbia, New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Alison Hutton
Affiliation:
Flinders University, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Mass Gatherings and High Consequence/High Visibility Events, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Ron Bowles
Affiliation:
Justice Institute of British Columbia, New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada
Elizabeth Ellerson
Affiliation:
Flinders University, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Mass Gatherings and High Consequence/High Visibility Events, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Malinda Steenkamp
Affiliation:
Flinders University, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Mass Gatherings and High Consequence/High Visibility Events, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Jamie Ranse
Affiliation:
University of Canberra, Faculty of Health, Bruce, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
Paul Arbon
Affiliation:
Flinders University, World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Mass Gatherings and High Consequence/High Visibility Events, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
*
Correspondence: Adam Lund, MD, FRCPC Emergency Department Royal Columbian Hospital 330 East Columbia Street New Westminster, British Columbia, V3L 3W7, Canada E-mail adam.lund@ubc.ca
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Abstract

Background

Current knowledge about mass-gathering health (MGH) fails to adequately inform the understanding of mass gatherings (MGs) because of a relative lack of theory development and adequate conceptual analysis. This report describes the development of a series of event lenses that serve as a beginning “MG event model,” complimenting the “MG population model” reported elsewhere.

Methods

Existing descriptions of “MGs” were considered. Analyzing gaps in current knowledge, the authors sought to delineate the population of events being reported. Employing a consensus approach, the authors strove to capture the diversity, range, and scope of MG events, identifying common variables that might assist researchers in determining when events are similar and might be compared. Through face-to-face group meetings, structured breakout sessions, asynchronous collaboration, and virtual international meetings, a conceptual approach to classifying and describing events evolved in an iterative fashion.

Findings

Embedded within existing literature are a variety of approaches to event classification and description. Arising from these approaches, the authors discuss the interplay between event demographics, event dynamics, and event design. Specifically, the report details current understandings about event types, geography, scale, temporality, crowd dynamics, medical support, protective factors, and special hazards. A series of tables are presented to model the different analytic lenses that might be employed in understanding the context of MG events.

Interpretation

The development of an event model addresses a gap in the current body of knowledge vis a vis understanding and reporting the full scope of the health effects related to MGs. Consistent use of a consensus-based event model will support more rigorous data collection. This in turn will support meta-analysis, create a foundation for risk assessment, allow for the pooling of data for illness and injury prediction, and support methodology for evaluating health promotion, harm reduction, and clinical response interventions at MGs.

TurrisSA , LundA , HuttonA , BowlesR , EllersonE , SteenkampM , RanseJ , ArbonP . Mass-gathering Health Research Foundational Theory: Part 2 - Event Modeling for Mass Gatherings. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2014;29(6):1-9.

Keywords

mass gatheringsmass-gathering healthminimum data setpopulationtheoretical modeling
Type
Special Reports
Information
Prehospital and Disaster Medicine , Volume 29 , Issue 6 , December 2014 , pp. 655 - 663
Copyright
Copyright © World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine 2014 

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