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Modeling Evacuation of a Hospital without Electric Power

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 April 2015

Eric D. Vugrin ,
Stephen J. Verzi ,
Patrick D. Finley ,
Mark A. Turnquist ,
Anne R. Griffin ,
Karen A. Ricci  and
Tamar Wyte-Lake
Eric D. Vugrin*
Affiliation:
Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
Stephen J. Verzi
Affiliation:
Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
Patrick D. Finley
Affiliation:
Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
Mark A. Turnquist
Affiliation:
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York USA
Anne R. Griffin
Affiliation:
Veterans Emergency Management Evaluation Center, US Veterans Administration, North Hills, California USA
Karen A. Ricci
Affiliation:
Veterans Emergency Management Evaluation Center, US Veterans Administration, North Hills, California USA
Tamar Wyte-Lake
Affiliation:
Veterans Emergency Management Evaluation Center, US Veterans Administration, North Hills, California USA
*
Correspondence: Eric D. Vugrin, PhD Sandia National Laboratories P.O. Box 5800 MS1138, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185-1138 USA E-mail:edvugrin@sandia.gov
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Abstract

Hospital evacuations that occur during, or as a result of, infrastructure outages are complicated and demanding. Loss of infrastructure services can initiate a chain of events with corresponding management challenges. This report describes a modeling case study of the 2001 evacuation of the Memorial Hermann Hospital in Houston, Texas (USA). The study uses a model designed to track such cascading events following loss of infrastructure services and to identify the staff, resources, and operational adaptations required to sustain patient care and/or conduct an evacuation. The model is based on the assumption that a hospital’s primary mission is to provide necessary medical care to all of its patients, even when critical infrastructure services to the hospital and surrounding areas are disrupted. Model logic evaluates the hospital’s ability to provide an adequate level of care for all of its patients throughout a period of disruption. If hospital resources are insufficient to provide such care, the model recommends an evacuation. Model features also provide information to support evacuation and resource allocation decisions for optimizing care over the entire population of patients. This report documents the application of the model to a scenario designed to resemble the 2001 evacuation of the Memorial Hermann Hospital, demonstrating the model’s ability to recreate the timeline of an actual evacuation. The model is also applied to scenarios demonstrating how its output can inform evacuation planning activities and timing.

Vugrin ED, Verzi SJ, Finley PD, Turnquist MA, Griffin AR, Ricci KA, Wyte-Lake T. Modeling Evacuation of a Hospital without Electric Power. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2015;30(3):1-9

Keywords

hospital evacuationinfrastructure disruptionmodeling
Type
Special Report
Information
Prehospital and Disaster Medicine , Volume 30 , Issue 3 , June 2015 , pp. 279 - 287
Copyright
© World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine 2015 

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