Will they Panic? The Effect of Risk Messaging on Public Behavior During Non-conventional Terrorism

Abstract

Introduction:

Non-conventional terrorism (NCT) is laced with uncertainty that can foster fear and lead to unwanted public behavior. One such example is the masses of worried-well overcrowding hospitals. The purpose of this study was to explore public behavioral intentions during NCT and the effect of risk messaging in attenuating unwanted behavior.

Method:

An online intervention-based study was conducted among 1,802 adult Israeli participants. Threat perception and behavioral intent before and after exposure to hypothetical NCT scenarios were assessed stratified to the media type, exposure to rumors and fake news, and risk messaging.

Results:

Participants perceived the CBRN terrorism threat as low-medium in likelihood, and threat intrusiveness and perceived incident severity were estimated at a medium level. Nearly half (45%) of participants indicated it is highly likely that they would seek medical attention following an NCT incident. Exposure to fake news significantly increased the intention to seek medical attention (p=0.001). However, the odds of participants exposed to risk messaging reporting this intention were 0.470 (95% CI: 0.359, 0.615) times that of participants not exposed to risk messaging (χ²=30.366, p<0.001).

Conclusion:

This study shows that overcrowding hospitals by worried-well following a non-conventional terror incident can be attenuated by risk messaging. In particular, this study suggests that simple, timely, and clear risk messaging is capable of overcoming fake news that otherwise can increase unwanted behavior. Rumors and fake news have limited power to alter threat perception, but they can significantly change behavioral intent and cause unwanted behavior that could jeopardize crisis management. Rational behavior by the public during NCT can be considered an outcome of rational decision-making by crisis managers, especially risk communicators.