Expectations for the Early TPF-C Mission

Abstract

We use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate the results and character of the early TPF-C mission. Using 10⁸ samples to represent the planets of interest, we compute the completeness of the first search observations of prioritized target stars with optimized exposure times that sum to one year total. Assuming simple observing protocols and decision rules for searching, verifying, and characterizing observations, and taking into account ranges of probabilities for confusion sources ($P_\mathrm{confusion}$) and the occurrence of planets of interest ($\eta$), we compute 10⁵ samples of the TPF-C schedule and observational outcomes for the first year of exposure time. For example, for Earth-like planets on habitable-zone orbits, assuming no observing overheads or pointing restrictions, and for the values $P_\mathrm{confusion}=0.5$ and $\eta=0.1$, we find that a median 2.2 planets are found, verified, and characterized in one year of exposure time, with the 68 highest priority stars searched.