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Exploring the predictability of the solar cycle from the polar field rise rate: Results from observations and simulations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 December 2024

Akash Biswas Open the ORCID record for Akash Biswas [Opens in a new window]
Akash Biswas*
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology (Banaras Hindu University), Varanasi 221005, India
*
email: akashbiswas.rs.phy20@itbhu.ac.in
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Abstract

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The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using the observed correlation of the polar field rise rate with the peak of polar field at cycle minimum and amplitude of following cycle, an early prediction can be made. In a follow-up study, we perform SFT simulations to explore the robustness of this correlation against variation of meridional flow speed, and against stochastic fluctuations of BMR tilt properties that give rise to anti-Joy and anti-Hale type anomalous BMRs. The results suggest that the observed correlation is a robust feature of the solar cycle and can be utilized for a reliable prediction of peak strength of a cycle at least 2 to 3 years earlier than the minimum.

Keywords

Solar MagnetismSolar Cycle PredictionSpace Weather
Type
Poster Paper
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 19 , Symposium S365: Dynamics of Solar and Stellar Convection Zones and Atmospheres , December 2023 , pp. 148 - 153
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of International Astronomical Union

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