Simultaneously constraining the astrophysics of reionisation and the epoch of heating with 21CMMC

Abstract

We extend our MCMC sampler of 3D EoR simulations, 21CMMC, to perform parameter estimation directly on light-cones of the cosmic 21cm signal. This brings theoretical analysis one step closer to matching the expected 21-cm signal from next generation interferometers like HERA and the SKA. Using the light-cone version of 21CMMC, we quantify biases in the recovered astrophysical parameters obtained from the 21cm power spectrum when using the co-eval approximation to fit a mock 3D light-cone observation. While ignoring the light-cone effect does not bias the parameters under most assumptions, it can still underestimate their uncertainties. However, significant biases (∼few – 10 σ) are possible if all of the following conditions are met: (i) foreground removal is very efficient, allowing large physical scales (k ∼ 0.1 Mpc⁻¹) to be used in the analysis; (ii) theoretical modelling is accurate to ∼10 per cent in the power spectrum amplitude; and (iii) the 21cm signal evolves rapidly (i.e. the epochs of reionisation and heating overlap significantly