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Fundamentals Matter: Forecasting the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 October 2020

Andrew J. Dowdle Open the ORCID record for Andrew J. Dowdle [Opens in a new window] ,
Randall E. Adkins ,
Karen Sebold  and
Wayne P. Steger Open the ORCID record for Wayne P. Steger [Opens in a new window]
Andrew J. Dowdle
Affiliation:
University of Arkansas
Randall E. Adkins
Affiliation:
University of Nebraska at Omaha
Karen Sebold
Affiliation:
University of Arkansas
Wayne P. Steger
Affiliation:
DePaul University
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Abstract

Previous studies used pre-primary variables (e.g., endorsements, national polls, and fundraising) and momentum variables from the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to predict presidential nomination outcomes. Yet, races with no elite favorite and no clear frontrunner in polls, such as in the 2020 Democratic race, are more difficult to forecast. We replicate and extend two forecasting models from 1980 to 2016 used by Dowdle et al. (2016) to predict the 2020 results. Our models suggest that Joe Biden may have been a stronger frontrunner than expected but that subsequent models may need to incorporate other early contests, such as the South Carolina primary. Overall, our results also argue that the fundamental factors in winning presidential nominations have remained relatively stable.

Type
Article
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 54 , Issue 1 , January 2021 , pp. 41 - 46
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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References

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