Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T03:39:17.190Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Time-for-Change Model and the 2004 Presidential Election: A Post-Mortem and a Look Ahead

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2005

Alan I. Abramowitz
Alan I. Abramowitz
Affiliation:
Emory University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Based on George Bush's net approval rating of −1% in the final Gallup Poll in June, a 3.7% growth rate for real GDP during the first two quarters of 2004, and the fact that the Republican Party had controlled the White House for only one term, the time-for-change model predicted that Mr. Bush would win reelection with 53.7% of the major party vote. This forecast was made in late July, before the Republican National Convention and more than three months before Election Day.

Type
Symposium
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 31
Copyright
© 2005 by the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)