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A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 June 2013

Bruno Jérôme ,
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari  and
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Bruno Jérôme
Affiliation:
University of Paris II, IRGEI-LARGEPA Paris II
Véronique Jérôme-Speziari
Affiliation:
University of Paris Sud XI- LARGEPA Paris II
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
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Extract

Our political economy model has correctly forecasted the 1998 and 2005 elections. However, in 2002 we predicted a tight race to the benefit of the Christian Democrats(CDU)/Christian Socialists(CSU)-Free Democratic Party (FDP) opposition, so underestimating the narrow defeat of the FDP by the Green Party. In the German political system, proportional representation makes single-party domination almost impossible. On the contrary, the big parties, Social Democratic Party (SPD) or CDU/CSU, are pushed to build a majority coalition. In this competition, the FDP has been the “pivotal party” in German political life, at least until 2002. Since then, the Greens have challenged the FDP, with the Ecologists allowing the SPD to form a red-green coalition in 1998 and in 2002. Similarly, in 2005 the FDP was not associated with the grand coalition driven by Angela Merkel.

Type
Spotlight
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 46 , Issue 3 , July 2013 , pp. 479 - 480
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013 

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References

REFERENCES

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