Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T07:11:12.520Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Actuarial prediction of violent recidivism in mentally disordered offenders

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 May 2007

ROBERT J. SNOWDEN ,
NICOLA S. GRAY ,
JOHN TAYLOR  and
MALCOLM J. MacCULLOCH
ROBERT J. SNOWDEN*
Affiliation:
School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
NICOLA S. GRAY
Affiliation:
School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK South Wales Forensic Psychiatric Service, Caswell Clinic, Glanrhyd Hospital, Mid Glamorgan, UK
JOHN TAYLOR
Affiliation:
Kneesworth House Hospital, Bassingbourne-cum-kneesworth, Royston, Hertfordshire, UK
MALCOLM J. MacCULLOCH
Affiliation:
School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK South Wales Forensic Psychiatric Service, Caswell Clinic, Glanrhyd Hospital, Mid Glamorgan, UK Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Wales College of Medicine, Cardiff, UK
*
*Address for correspondence: Professor R. J. Snowden, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AT, Wales, UK. (Email: snowden@cardiff.ac.uk)
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Background

Actuarial instruments may be useful in predicting long-term violence in mentally disordered patients. We compared two instruments that differ in terms of what they are designed to predict (general versus violent recividism) and the inclusion of stable mental health variables.

Method

A large sample of mentally disordered patients were scored on two risk assessment instruments, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), based on information at the point of discharge. Their criminal histories for at least 2 years following discharge were obtained from official records.

Results

Both instruments were good predictors of both violent and general offending. Over shorter periods (<1 year) the VRAG had very good predictive validities for both types of offences [areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) >0·85], which were significantly better than the OGRS. For longer follow-up periods the instruments had approximately equal prediction accuracy. However, both instruments predicted far more offences than were in fact recorded.

Conclusions

The VRAG is a very good predictor of future violence in the UK sample. The OGRS may also be of value as it can be completed quickly and without the need for mental health variables. Caution is needed, however, as both instruments appeared to over-predict the levels of reconvictions in this sample.

Type
Original Article
Information
Psychological Medicine , Volume 37 , Issue 11 , November 2007 , pp. 1539 - 1549
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Andrews, D. A. & Bonta, J. (1985). LSI-R: The Level of Supervision Inventory – Revised. Multi-Health Systems: Toronto.Google Scholar
Appelbaum, P. S., Robbins, P. C. & Monahan, J. (2000). Violence and delusions: data from the MacArthur violence risk assessment study. American Journal of Psychiatry 157, 566–572.Google Scholar
Arboleda-Florez, J., Holley, H. & Crisanti, A. (1998). Understanding casual paths between mental illness and violence. Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology 33, s38–s46.Google Scholar
Arseneault, L., Moffitt, T. E., Caspi, A., Taylor, P. J. & Silva, P. A. (2000). Mental disorders and violence in a total birth cohort. Archives of General Psychiatry 57, 979–986.Google Scholar
Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Langton, C. M. & Peacock, E. J. (2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior 28, 490–521.Google Scholar
Bonta, J., Law, M. & Hanson, K. (1998). The prediction of criminal and violent recividism among mentally disordered offenders: a meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin 123, 123–142.Google Scholar
Cocozza, J. J. & Steadman, H. J. (1976). The failure of psychiatric predictions of dangerousness: clear and convincing evidence. Rutgers Law Review 29, 1084–1101.Google Scholar
Copas, J. & Marshall, P. (1998). The offender group reconviction scale: a statistical reconviction score for use by probation officers. Applied Statistics 47, 159–171.Google Scholar
Douglas, K. S., Yoemans, M. & Boer, D. P. (2005). Comparative validity analysis of multiple measures of violence risk in a sample of criminal offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior 32, 479–510.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doyle, M. & Dolan, M. (2006). Predicting community violence from patients discharged from mental health services. British Journal of Psychiatry 189, 520–526.Google Scholar
Doyle, M., Dolan, M. & McGovern, J. (2002). The validity of North American risk assessment tools in predicting in-patient violent behaviour in England. Legal and Criminological Psychology 7, 141–154.Google Scholar
Fava, M. (1990). ‘Anger attacks’: possible variants of panic and major depressive disorders. American Journal of Psychiatry 147, 867–890.Google ScholarPubMed
Gardner, W., Lidz, C. W., Mulvery, E. P. & Shaw, E. C. (1996 a). Clinical versus actuarial predictions of violence in patients with mental illness. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 64, 602–609.Google Scholar
Gardner, W., Lidz, C. W., Mulvery, E. P. & Shaw, E. C. (1996 b). A comparison of actuarial methods for identifying repetitively violent patients with mental illnesses. Law and Human Behaviour 20, 35–48.Google Scholar
Gendreau, P., Little, T. & Goggin, C. (1996). A meta-analysis of the predictors of adult offender recividism. What works! Criminology 34, 575–607.Google Scholar
Glover, A. J. J., Nicholson, D. E., Hemmati, T., Bernfeld, G. A. & Quinsey, V. L. (2002). A comparison of predictors of general and violent recividism among high risk federal offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior 29, 235–249.Google Scholar
Grann, M., Belfrage, H. & Tengstrom, A. (2000). Actuarial assessment of risk for violence. Predictive validity of the VRAG and the historical part of the HCR-20. Criminal Justice and Behavior 27, 97–114.Google Scholar
Grann, M. & Wedin, I. (2002). Risk factors for recidivism among spousal assault and spousal homicide offenders. Psychology, Crime and Law 8, 5–23.Google Scholar
Gray, N. S., Hill, C., McGleish, A., Timmons, D., MacCulloch, M. J. & Snowden, R. J. (2003). Prediction of violence and self-harm in mentally disordered offenders: a prospective study of the efficacy of HCR-20, PCL-R and psychiatric symptomatology. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 71, 443–451.Google Scholar
Gray, N. S., Snowden, R. J., MacCulloch, S., Phillips, H., Taylor, J. & MacCulloch, M. J. (2004). Relative efficacy of criminological, clinical and personality measures of future risk of offending in mentally disordered offenders: a comparative study of HCR-20, PCL:SV and OGRS. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 72, 523–530.Google Scholar
Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E. & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: a meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment 12, 19–30.Google Scholar
Hanley, J. A. & McNeil, B. J. (1983). A method of comparing the areas under the receiving operating characteristic curves derived from the same cases. Radiology 148, 839–843.Google Scholar
Hare, R. D. (2004). The Hare Psychopathy Checklist – Revised (PCL-R) (2nd edn). Multi-Health Systems: Toronto.Google Scholar
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Camilleri, J. A. (2004). Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 19, 1063–1074.Google Scholar
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Cormier, C. A. (2002). Prospective replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients. Law and Human Behavior 26, 377–394.Google Scholar
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: the development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior 20, 315–335.Google Scholar
Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., Lalumiere, M. L., Boer, D. & Lang, C. (2003). A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders. Psychological Assessment 15, 413–425.Google Scholar
Hodgins, S. & Janson, C.-G. (2002). Criminality and Violence Among the Mentally Disordered: The Stockholm Metropolitan Project. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.Google Scholar
Kroner, D. G. & Mills, J. F. (2001). The accuracy of five risk appraisal instruments in predicting institutional misconduct and new convictions. Criminal Justice and Behavior 28, 471–489.Google Scholar
Loza, W., Villeneuve, D. B. & Loza-Fanous, A. (2002). Predictive validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide: a tool for assessing violent offender's recidivism. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry 25, 85–92.Google Scholar
Maden, A., Scott, F., Burnett, R., Lewis, G. H. & Skapinakis, P. (2004). Offending in psychiatric patients after discharge from medium secure units: prospective national cohort study. British Medical Journal 328, 1534.Google Scholar
McNiel, D. E., Gregory, A. L., Lam, J. N., Binder, R. L. & Sullivan, G. R. (2003). Utility of decision support tools for assessing acute risk of violence. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 71, 945–953.Google Scholar
Mills, J. F., Jones, M. N. & Kroner, D. G. (2005). An examination of the generalizability of the LSI-R and VRAG probability bins. Criminal Justice and Behavior 32, 565–585.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mills, J. F., Kroner, D. G. & Hemmati, T. (2003). Predicting violent behaviour through a static-stable variable lens. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 18, 891–904.Google Scholar
Monahan, J. (1992). Mental disorder and violent behavior. American Psychologist 47, 511–521.Google Scholar
Monahan, J., Steadman, H. J., Silver, E., Appelbaum, P. S., Robbins, P. C., Mulvey, E. P., Roth, L. H., Grisso, T. & Banks, S. (2001). Rethinking Risk Assessment: The MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence. Oxford University Press: USA.Google Scholar
Monahan, J., Steadman, H. J., Applebaum, P., Grisso, T., Mulvey, E. P., Roth, L. H., Robbins, P. C., Banks, S. & Silver, E. (2005). Classification of Violence Risk (COVR). Psychological Assessment Resources, Inc: Lutz, FL.Google Scholar
Mossman, D. (1994). Assessing predictions of violence: being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 62, 783–792.Google Scholar
Pham, T. H., Ducro, C., Marghem, B. & Reveillere, C. (2005). Prediction of recidivism among prison inmates and forensic patients in Belgium. Annales Medico-Psychologiques 163, 842–845.Google Scholar
Phillips, H., Gray, N. S., MacCulloch, S., Taylor, J., Moore, S. C., Huckle, P. & MacCulloch, M. J. (2005). Risk assessment in offenders with mental disorders. Relative efficacy of personal demographics, criminal history, and clinical variables. Journal of Interpersonal Violence 20, 833–847.Google Scholar
Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Cormier, C. A. (1998). Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk. American Psychological Association: Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E. & Cormier, C. A. (2006). Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk (2nd edn). American Psychological Association: Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Rice, M. E. & Harris, G. T. (1995). Violent recidivism: assessing predictive validity. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 63, 737–748.Google Scholar
Rice, M. E. & Harris, G. T. (1997). Cross-validation and extension of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide for child molesters and rapists. Law and Human Behavior 21, 231–241.Google Scholar
Rice, M. E. & Harris, G. T. (2005). Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC area, Cohen's d, and r. Law and Human Behavior 29, 615–620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sjostedt, G. & Langstrom, N. (2002). Assessment of risk for criminal recidivism among rapists: a comparison of four different measures. Psychology, Crime and Law 8, 25–40.Google Scholar
Taylor, R. (1999). Predicting Reconvictions for Sexual and Violent Offences using the Revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale. Home Office Research Development and Statistics Directorate, Research Findings no. 104 (www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/rf1999.html).Google Scholar
Tengstrom, A. (2001). Long-term predictive validity of historical factors in two risk assessment instruments in a group of violent offenders with schizophrenia. Nordic Journal of Psychiatry 55, 243–249.Google Scholar
Urabaniok, F., Noll, T., Grunewald, S., Steinbach, J. & Endrass, J. (2006). Prediction of violent and sexual offences: a replication study of the VRAG in Switzerland. Journal of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology 17, 23–31.Google Scholar
Webster, C. D., Douglas, K. S., Eaves, D. & Hart, S. D. (1997). HCR-20: Assessing Risk for Violence (Version 2). Simon Fraser University: Vancouver, Canada.Google Scholar
WHO (1992). The ICD-10 Classification of Mental and Behavioral Disorders. World Health Organization: Geneva.Google Scholar