Simultaneous Nonlinear Prediction

Abstract

A previous article was concerned with simultaneous linear prediction. There one was given a set of predictor tests or items and one predicted a set of predictands (also tests or items, or perhaps criteria.) We proposed a simultaneous prediction which was a certain weighted sum of the predictors. In the present article the constraint that the prediction be a weighted sum is relaxed. We seek a general function of the predictors which will maximize the quantity chosen for measuring prediction efficiency. This quantity is the same as the one used in linear prediction and we justify this approach by showing it is the appropriate one when there is only one predictand. In order to solve the problem we restrict consideration to a vector of predictors having only a finite number of possible values, i.e., it possesses discrete probability distribution weights. This can be applied in the case of dichotomous items for instance. It may also be used in continuous distributions as an approximation, by first dividing the original range of values into a finite number of intervals. Then one attributes to the interval the weight corresponding to the probability mass it underlies in the original distribution.