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Canary in the coal mine? China, the UNGA, and the changing world order

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 February 2017

Samuel Brazys  and
Alexander Dukalskis
Samuel Brazys*
Affiliation:
University College Dublin
Alexander Dukalskis*
Affiliation:
University College Dublin
*
* Correspondence to: (both authors) University College Dublin, School of Politics and International Relations, Newman Building G310, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland. Authors’ email: samuel.brazys@ucd.ie; alexander.dukalskis@ucd.ie
* Correspondence to: (both authors) University College Dublin, School of Politics and International Relations, Newman Building G310, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland. Authors’ email: samuel.brazys@ucd.ie; alexander.dukalskis@ucd.ie
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Abstract

How China assumes its position of superpower is one of the most important questions regarding global order in the twenty-first century. While considerable and sustained attention has been paid to China’s growing economic and military might, work examining how China is attempting, if at all, to influence the ecosystem of global norms is in its earlier stages. In this article we examine China’s actions in an important venue for the development of global norms, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Using a unique dataset that captures how other countries move into or out of alignment with China on UNGA resolutions that are repeated over time, we find statistical evidence that China used diplomatic and economic means in an attempt to subtly alter international norms. We further illustrate these findings by examining four states that made substantive moves toward China on resolutions concerning national sovereignty, democracy, international order, non-interference, and human rights.

Keywords

ChinaInternational NormsUnited NationsUNGAHuman RightsDiplomacyTradeInternational Organisations
Type
Articles
Information
Review of International Studies , Volume 43 , Issue 4 , October 2017 , pp. 742 - 764
Copyright
© British International Studies Association 2017 

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References

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50 Bader, ‘China, autocratic patron?’.

51 We use the Polity IV score in the regressions in Table 1. These results are also robust when using Freedom House scores, with results available upon request.

52 Following Strüver, ‘What friends are made of’, we also run models using exports as share to total exports and of GDP. Like Strüver we find no significant relationship between export dependence and alignment with China’s UNGA position. These results are presented in Appendix I, Table I.2, models I (share of exports) and II (share of GDP).

53 See {https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2050.html} accessed 13 April 2016.

54 Samuel Brazys and Diana Panke, ‘Why do states change positions in the United Nations General Assembly?’, International Political Science Review, Advance Online Print (2015), doi: 10.1177/0192512115616540.

55 Ibid.

56 Panke, ‘The UNGA – a talking shop?’.

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58 Ibid.; see also Nathan and Scobell, China’s Search for Security, p. 184.

59 Panke, ‘The UNGA – a talking shop?’.

60 Data are from Diana Panke, ‘Getting ready to negotiate in international organizations? On the importance of the domestic construction of national positions’, Journal of International Organizations Studies, 4:2 (2013), pp. 25–38. These data are only for the year 2008. However, as we expect the size of UN diplomatic missions to be relatively time-invariant we consider the 2008 count a reasonable proxy for all years in our study.

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63 This proportion is roughly identical to what Brazys and Panke (2015) find (154 repeated out of 311 total) when analysing all UNGA votes over this same time period.

64 A full list of the resolutions considered in this analysis can be found in Appendix II.

65 Treatment of absences and alignment are discussed in Appendix I.

66 A two-tailed, two proportion Z-test indicates this (higher) proportion of states moving into alignment with China is statistically significant at the 99.9 per cent level (Z=6.2819, p=0.0000).

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74 Although the time-invariant measure of ‘Diplomats’ become statistically insignificant.

75 Where Z=2.5122 and p=0.01208 for the proportion of total shifts.

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95 Ibid.

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100 Pew Research Center, Global Indicators Database, Nicaragua (2014), available at: {http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/1/country/158/}. Nicaraguans in 2014 (the only year for which data is available) had more positive views of the US than many of their neighbours, such as Mexico, Peru, Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina. They also had more positive views of China than many of their neighbours, but did not view China as favourably as Chile or Venezuela.

101 See China.aiddata.org, Geospatial Dashboard (2015), available at: {http://china.aiddata.org/geospatial_dashboard?q=&l=1.6998848422406068,10.498809814453125,9}.

102 US Department of State, ‘U.S. Relations with Equatorial Guinea’, Bureau of African Affairs Fact Sheet (2014), available at: {http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/7221.htm}.

103 Johnston, ‘What (if anything) does East Asia tell us?’.

104 Goodman and Jinks, Socializing States.

105 Finnemore, Martha, ‘Legitimacy, hypocrisy, and the social structure of unipolarity’, World Politics, 61:1 (2009), pp. 58–85 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

106 Schweller and Pu, ‘After unipolarity’.

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