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Towards a Decision Quality Model for Shot Selection in Basketball: an Exploratory Study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 September 2016

Ernesto Suárez-Cadenas ,
Javier Courel-Ibáñez ,
David Cárdenas  and
José C. Perales
Ernesto Suárez-Cadenas*
Affiliation:
University of Granada (Spain)
Javier Courel-Ibáñez
Affiliation:
University of Granada (Spain)
David Cárdenas
Affiliation:
University of Granada (Spain)
José C. Perales
Affiliation:
University of Granada (Spain)
*
*Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Ernesto Suárez-Cadenas. University of Granada - Sport Sciences. Carretera de Alfacar. s/n. 18071. Granada (Spain). E-mail: ersuca@gmail.com
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Abstract

We take the first steps towards a shot selection quality model in basketball that incorporates decisional cues that might be predictive, not only of proximal results (e.g., scoring), but also of distal results (e.g., winning/losing the match). 2976 jump-shots from 50 Euroleague matches were sampled, following systematic observation guidelines. The decisional cues under scrutiny were shooting opposition, distance and lateral angle, disposition to offensive rebound and disposition to defensive balance at the moment of shooting. A first set of regressions between decisional cues and proximal results showed higher opposition and distance to decrease the probability of scoring (OR = .81; p < .001 and OR = .89; p = .013); a better disposition towards rebound to increase the chances of catching rebound (OR = 1.57; p < .001); and better defensive balance disposition to decrease the probability of a fast break (OR = 1.27; p < .036). A second set of regressions between proximal and distal results showed shooting and offensive rebound effectiveness to predict total points scored (β = .62; p < .001 and β = .32; p < .001) and game result (winning/losing the game; OR = 1.12; p < .001 and OR = 1.05; p = .021). Finally, an analysis of the impact of decisional cues on distal results showed a positive relationship between likelihood of winning and average team’s disposition to offensive rebound (OR = 1.18; p = .018). These results cast light on the actual weights (validities) of the different cues involved in predicting outcomes of shooting decisions. This evidence could help coaches provide objective feedback about players’ shooting performance beyond hit percentages.

Keywords

basketball shootingcue validitiesdecision qualityperformance indicator
Type
Research Article
Information
The Spanish Journal of Psychology , Volume 19 , 2016 , E55
Copyright
Copyright © Universidad Complutense de Madrid and Colegio Oficial de Psicólogos de Madrid 2016 

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Footnotes

Any aspect of the work covered in this manuscript has been conducted with the ethical approval of all relevant bodies.

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