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Immigration Politics and Partisan Realignment: California, Texas, and the 1994 Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

James E. Monogan III  and
Austin C. Doctor
James E. Monogan III*
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
Austin C. Doctor
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
*
James E. Monogan III, University of Georgia, 413 Baldwin Hall, Athens, GA 30602, USA. Email: monogan@uga.edu
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Abstract

This article demonstrates how the party identification of various demographic groups in California and Texas changed in response to the gubernatorial campaigns of Pete Wilson and George W. Bush. Using aggregated time series of Field Poll, Texas Poll, and Gallup data, difference-in-differences results show that Wilson's embrace of Proposition 187 was followed by significant Hispanic movement toward the Democratic Party in California. Time series analysis substantiates that this action led to a long-term 7.1 percentage point Democratic shift among California's Hispanics. This suggests that state-level actors can influence partisan coalitions in their state, beyond what would be expected from national-level factors.

Keywords

political partiesparties and interest groupsparties and electionstime seriesquantitative methodsmethodologydirect democracypolitical behaviorHispanic/Latino politicsidentity/group politicspublic opinion
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 17 , Issue 1 , March 2017 , pp. 3 - 23
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2017

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