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The Impact of State Legislative Term Limits on the Supply of Congressional Candidates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Jennifer A. Steen
Jennifer A. Steen*
Affiliation:
Boston College
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Abstract

Do term limits affect the probability that an incumbent state legislator will run for the United States Congress? The theory of strategic politicians suggests that by reducing legislators' opportunity costs of running for higher office, term limits should push some legislators into congressional campaigns they would have foregone had a long-term legislative career been an option. To test this hypothesis, I analyze data from congressional elections held from 1992 through 2004 in the 15 states where term limits were operative in 2004. I find that sitting state legislators who have hit the limit of their state legislative service are more likely to run for Congress than those who are eligible to serve additional terms, whether those terms are limited or not. However, there is no statistically significant difference between the congressional-candidacy rates of legislators whose re-election eligibility is limited, but not exhausted, and legislators whose terms are not limited. By increasing the supply of experienced challengers, term limits may increase competition in elections for non-term-limited offices and, consequently, the quality of representation provided by those elected.

Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 6 , Issue 4 , Winter 2006 , pp. 430 - 447
Copyright
Copyright © 2006 by the Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

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