Statistical analysis of the seasonal variation in the twinning rate

Abstract

There have been few secular analyses of the seasonal variation in human twinning and the results are conflicting. One reason for this is that the seasonal pattern of twinning varies in different populations and at different periods. Another reason is that the statistical methods used are different. The changing pattern of seasonal variation in twinning rates and total maternities in Denmark was traced for three periods (1855–69, 1870–94, and 1937–84). Two alternative methods of analysis are considered. The method of Walter and Elwood and a trigonometric regression model give closely similar results. The seasonal distribution of twin maternities for the periods in the 19th century showed highly significant departures. For both twin and general maternities, the main peaks can be seen from March to June and a local peak in September. During the spring– summer season the twinning rates were higher than the total birth rates, indicating a stronger seasonal variation for the twin maternities than for the general maternities. For 1937–84, there was a similar, but less accentuated, pattern. Studies of other populations are compared with the Danish results. The more accentuated seasonal variation of twinning in the past indicate that some factors in the past affected women during summer–autumn and around Christmas time, making them more fecund and particularly to be more prone to polyovulation and/or more able to complete a gestation with multiple embryos.