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The Potential Global Distribution of Tall Buttercup (Ranunculus acris ssp. acris): Opposing Effects of Irrigation and Climate Change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Graeme W. Bourdôt ,
Shona L. Lamoureaux ,
Michael S. Watt  and
Darren J. Kriticos
Graeme W. Bourdôt*
Affiliation:
AgResearch Ltd, Lincoln, Private Bag 4749, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand
Shona L. Lamoureaux
Affiliation:
AgResearch Ltd, Lincoln, Private Bag 4749, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand
Michael S. Watt
Affiliation:
Scion, PO Box 29237, Fendalton, Christchurch, New Zealand
Darren J. Kriticos
Affiliation:
Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation, Ecosystem Sciences and Climate Adaptation Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601 Australia
*
Corresponding author's E-mail: graeme.bourdot@agresearch.co.nz
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Abstract

Tall buttercup, a native of central and northern Europe, has become naturalized in the United States and Canada, and in South Africa, Tasmania and New Zealand. In Canada and New Zealand it has become an economically significant weed in cattle-grazed pastures. In this study we develop a CLIMEX model for tall buttercup and use it to project the weed's potential distribution under current and future climates and in the presence and absence of irrigation. There was close concordance between the model's projection of suitable climate and recorded observations of the species. The projection was highly sensitive to irrigation; the area of potentially suitable land globally increasing by 30% (from 34 to 45 million km2) under current climate when a “top-up” irrigation regime (rainfall topped up 4 mm d−1 on irrigable land), was included in the model. Most of the area that becomes suitable under irrigation is located in central Asia and central North America. By contrast, climate change is projected to have the opposite effect; the potential global distribution diminishing by 18% (from 34 to 28 million km2). This range contraction was the net result of a northward expansion in the northern limit for the species in Canada and the Russian Federation, and a relatively larger increase in the land area becoming unsuitable mainly in central Asia and south eastern United States.

Keywords

Tall buttercup, Ranunculus acris L. ssp. acrisAnimal healthclimate changeCLIMEXgiant buttercupmeadow buttercuptall buttercupweed invasion
Type
Weed Biology and Ecology
Information
Weed Science , Volume 61 , Issue 2 , June 2013 , pp. 230 - 238
Copyright
Copyright © Weed Science Society of America 

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