Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-lnqnp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T12:56:01.989Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Electoral Manipulation and Regime Support

Survey Evidence from Russia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 March 2021

Ora John Reuter  and
David Szakonyi
Get access

Abstract

Does electoral fraud stabilize authoritarian rule or undermine it? The answer to this question rests in part on how voters evaluate regime candidates who engage in fraud. Using a survey experiment conducted after the 2016 elections in Russia, the authors find that voters withdraw their support from ruling party candidates who commit electoral fraud. This effect is especially large among strong supporters of the regime. Core regime supporters are more likely to have ex ante beliefs that elections are free and fair. Revealing that fraud has occurred significantly reduces their propensity to support the regime. The authors’ findings illustrate that fraud is costly for autocrats not just because it may ignite protest, but also because it can undermine the regime’s core base of electoral support. Because many of its strongest supporters expect free and fair elections, the regime has strong incentives to conceal or otherwise limit its use of electoral fraud.

Keywords

authoritarianismautocracyelectionselectoral fraudelectoral manipulationvote buyingRussia
Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 73 , Issue 2 , April 2021 , pp. 275 - 314
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anduiza, Eva, Gallego, Aina, and Muñoz, Jordi. 2013. “Turning a Blind Eye: Experimental Evidence of Partisan Bias in Attitudes toward Corruption.” Comparative Political Studies 46, no. 12: 1664–92. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414013489081.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 2002. “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions.” Political Behavior 24, no. 2: 117–50. At https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021226224601.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bhatti, Yosef, Hansen, Kasper M., and Olsen, Asmus Leth. 2013. “Political Hypocrisy: The Effect of Political Scandals on Candidate Evaluations.” Acta Politica 48, no. 4: 408-28. At https://doi.org/10.1057/ap.2013.6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birch, Sarah. 2011. Electoral Malpractice. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bunce, Valerie J., and Wolchik., Sharon L. 2011. Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Callander, Steven, and Simon, Wilkie. 2007. “Lies, Damned Lies, and Political Campaigns.” Games and Economic Behavior 60, no. 2: 262–86. At https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2006.12.003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Cantú, Francisco, and Omar, García-Ponce. 2015. “Partisan Losers’ Effects: Perceptions of Electoral Integrity in Mexico.” Electoral Studies 39: 1–14. At https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.03.004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John, Clayton, Katherine, Helmke, Gretchen, Nyhan, Brendan, Sanders, Mitchell, and Stokes, Susan. 2020. “Who Will Defend Democracy? Evaluating Tradeoffs in Candidate Support among Partisan Donors and Voters.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. At https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2020.1790577.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cornelius, Wayne A. 1975. Politics and the Migrant Poor in Mexico City. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Doherty, David, Dowling, Conor M., and Miller, Michael G.. 2016. “When Is Changing Policy Positions Costly for Politicians? Experimental Evidence.” PoliticalBehavior 38, no. 2: 455–84. At https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-015-9321-9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., Palmer, Harvey D., and Anderson, Christopher J.. 2000. “Heterogeneity in Perceptions of National Economic Conditions.” American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 4: 635–52. At https://doi.org/10.2307/2669272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enikolopov, Ruben, Korovkin, Vasily, Petrova, Maria, Sonin, Konstantin, and Zakharov, Alexei. 2013. “Field Experiment Estimate of Electoral Fraud in Russian Parliamentary Elections.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110, no. 2: 448–52. At https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1206770110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2011. “Self-Enforcing Democracy.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126, no. 4: 1661–708. At https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjr038.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferraz, Claudio, and Frederico, Finan. 2008. “Exposing Corrupt Politicians: The Effect of Brazil’s Publicly Released Audits on Electoral Outcomes.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, no. 2: 703–45. At https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2008.123.2.703.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frye, Timothy, Reuter, Ora John, and Szakonyi, David. 2014. “Political Machines at Work: Voter Mobilization and Electoral Subversion in the Workplace.” World Politics 66, no. 2 (April): 195–228. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S00438811400001X.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frye, Timothy, Reuter, Ora John, and Szakonyi, David. 2019. “Hitting Them with Carrots: Voter Intimidation and Vote Buying in Russia.” British Journal of Political Science 49, no. 3: 857–81. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123416000752.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Ellen, Lust-Okar. 2009. “Elections under Authoritarianism.” Annual Review of Political Science 12: 403–22. At https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060106.095434.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, and Alberto, Simpser. 2015. “Electoral Manipulation as Bureaucratic Control.” American Journal of Political Science 59, no. 1: 212-24. At https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
GOLOS. 2012. Domestic Monitoring of Elections of the President of Russian Federation. [In Russian.] Moscow: Association GOLOS. At http://archive.golos.org/asset/5878, accessed November 20, 2020.Google Scholar
Gonzalez, Ocantos, Ezequiel, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, and Nickerson, David W.. 2014. “The Conditionality of Vote-Buying Norms: Experimental Evidence from Latin America.” American Journal of Political Science 58, no. 1: 197–211. At https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12047.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana, and Adrienne, LeBas. 2020. “Does Electoral Violence Affect Vote Choice and Willingness to Vote? Conjoint Analysis of a Vignette Experiment.” Journal of Peace Research 57, no. 1: 77–92. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319892677.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jerit, Jennifer, and Jason, Barabas. 2012. “Partisan Perceptual Bias and the Information Environment.” Journal of Politics 74, no. 3: 672–84. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381612000187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramon, Eric. 2016. “Electoral Handouts as Information: Explaining Unmonitored Vote Buying.” World Politics 68, no. 3 (July): 454–98. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887115000453.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kunda, Ziva. 1990. “The Case for Motivated Reasoning.” Psychological Bulletin 108, no. 3: 480–98. At https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebo, Matthew J., and Daniel Cassino. 2007. “The Aggregated Consequences of Motivated Reasoning and the Dynamics of Partisan Presidential Approval.” Political Psychology 28, no. 6: 719–46. At https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2007.00601.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan A.. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mares, Isabela, and Lauren, Young. 2016. “Do Voters Punish Electoral Malfeasance?” At https://www.academia.edu/31970095/Do\_voters\_punish\_electoral\_malfeasance, accessed November 20, 2020.Google Scholar
McAllister, Ian, and Stephen, White. 2011. “Public Perceptions of Electoral Fairness in Russia.” Europe-Asia Studies 63, no. 4: 663–83. At https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2011.566429.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCann, James A., and Jorge I. Domínguez. 1998. “Mexicans React to Electoral Fraud and Political Corruption: An Assessment of Public Opinion and Voting Behavior.” Electoral Studies 17, no. 4: 483–503. At https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(98)00026-2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Michael K. 2015. “Elections, Information, and Policy Responsiveness in Autocratic Regimes.” Comparative Political Studies 48, no. 6: 691–727. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414014555443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgenbesser, Lee. 2017. “The Autocratic Mandate: Elections, Legitimacy and Regime Stability in Singapore.” Pacific Review 30, no. 2: 205–31. At https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2016.1201134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Myagkov, Mikhail, Ordeshook, Peter C., and Shakin, Dimitri. 2009. The Forensics of Election Fraud: Russia and Ukraine. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nikolayenko, Olena. 2015. “Do Contentious Elections Depress Turnout?” In Norris, Pippa, Frank, Richard W., and i Coma, Ferran Martínez, eds., Contentious Elections: From Ballots to Barricades. New York, N.Y.: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2013. “Does the World Agree about Standards of Electoral Integrity? Evidence for the Diffusion of Global Norms.” Electoral Studies 32, no. 4: 576–88. At https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.07.016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2014. Why Electoral Integrity Matters. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ODIHR (Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights). 2003. Russian Federation: State Duma Elections. Warsaw, Poland: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. At https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/1/1/18283.pdf, accessed November 20, 2020.Google Scholar
Pietsch, Juliet. 2015. “Authoritarian Durability: Public Opinion towards Democracy in Southeast Asia.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 25, no. 1: 31–46. At https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2014.933836.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuter, Ora John, and David, Szakonyi. 2015. “Online Social Media and Political Awareness in Authoritarian Regimes.” British Journal of Political Science 45, no. 1: 29–51. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123413000203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuter, Ora John, and David, Szakonyi. 2021a. “Replication data for Electoral Manipulation and Regime Support: Survey Evidence from Russia.” Harvard Dataverse, V1. At https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ITLVMH.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuter, Ora John, and Szakonyi, David. 2021b. “Supplementary material for Electoral Manipulation and Regime Support: Survey Evidence from Russia.” At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887120000234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robertson, Graeme. 2017. “Political Orientation, Information and Perceptions of Election Fraud: Evidence from Russia.” British Journal of Political Science 47, no. 3: 589–608. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123415000356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, Richard, and William, Mishler. 2009. “How Do Electors Respond to an ‘Unfair’ Election? The Experience of Russians.” Post-Soviet Affairs 25, no. 2: 118-36. At https://doi.org/10.2747/1060-586X.24.2.118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rozenas, Arturas. 2016. “Office Insecurity and Electoral Manipulation.” Journal of Politics 78, no. 1: 232-48. At https://doi.org/10.1086/683256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rundlett, Ashlea, and Svolik, Milan W.. 2016. “Deliver the Vote! Micromotives and Macrobehavior in Electoral Fraud.” American Political Science Review 110, no. 1: 180–97. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055415000635.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwarz, Susanne, and Alexander, Coppock. Forthcoming. “What Have We Learned about Gender from Candidate Choice Experiments? A Meta-Analysis of 67 Factorial Survey Experiments.” Journal of Politics. At https://alexandercoppock.com/schwarz_coppock_2020.html, accessed November 20, 2020.Google Scholar
Simpser, Alberto. 2012. “Does Electoral Manipulation Discourage Voter Turnout? Evidence from Mexico.” Journal of Politics 74, no. 3: 782–95. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381612000333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simpser, Alberto. 2013. Why Governments and Parties Manipulate Elections: Theory, Practice, and Implications. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2020. “When Polarization Trumps Civic Virtue: Partisan Conflict and the Subversion of Democracy by Incumbents.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 15, no. 1: 3–31. At https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00018132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Szakonyi, David. Forthcoming. “Candidate Filtering: The Strategic Use of Electoral Manipulations in Russia.” British Journal of Political Science. At https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3438270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taber, Charles S., and Lodge, Milton. 2006. “Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs.” American Journal of Political Science 50, no. 3: 755–69. At https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00214.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tucker, Joshua A. 2007. “Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions.” Perspectives on Politics 5, no. 3: 535–51. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592707071538.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vicente, Pedro C. 2014. “Is Vote Buying Effective? Evidence from a Field Experiment in West Africa.” Economic Journal 124, no. 574: F356–87. At https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12086.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, Markus, Tarlov, Jessica, and Vivyan, Nick. 2014. “Partisan Bias in Opinion Formation on Episodes of Political Controversy: Evidence from Great Britain.” Political Studies 62, no. 1: 136–58. At https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.2012.01002.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weitz-Shapiro, Rebecca. 2014. Curbing Clientelism in Argentina: Politics, Poverty, and Social Policy. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wengle, Susanne, and Christine, Evans. 2018. “Symbolic State-Building in Contemporary Russia.” Post-Soviet Affairs 34, no. 6: 384–411. At https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2018.1507409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williamson, Scott. 2018. “Elections, Legitimacy, and Compliance in Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from the Arab World.” At https://www.scott-william-son.com/s/Elections-Autocracy-Legitimacy-Final3-dt9e.pdf, accessed November 20, 2020.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Reuter and Szakonyi Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ITLVMH
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Reuter and Szakonyi supplementary material

Reuter and Szakonyi supplementary material

Download Reuter and Szakonyi supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 408.5 KB