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Mass Resettlement and Political Violence

Evidence From Rwanda

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 August 2018

Lachlan McNamee
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This article examines the relationship between mass resettlement and political conflict. The author theorizes that states can use mass resettlement to extend control over contested frontiers. Settlers whose land rights are politically contested will disproportionately participate in violence to defend the incumbent regime. The theory is tested using data on resettlement and violence in postcolonial Rwanda. The author shows that the Hutu revolutionary regime resettled some 450,000 Hutus after independence to frontier and Tutsi-dominated areas to defend itself against external Tutsi militias. The author contends that the invasion of the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) in the 1990s threatened the Hutu settler population because the RPF sought the repatriation of Tutsis onto redistributed land and that consequent land insecurity incentivized violence against Tutsis in 1994. The article identifies the positive effect of resettlement on locality violence during the genocide via a geographic regression discontinuity design. A process tracing of one notoriously violent resettled commune supports the theorized causal sequence. In light of these findings, the author suggests that research should refocus on the way that conflict shapes ethnic demography and that, to understand participation in state-sponsored violence, scholars should attend to the threat posed by regime change to individual livelihoods.

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Research Article
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World Politics , Volume 70 , Issue 4 , October 2018 , pp. 595 - 644
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Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2018 

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Footnotes

*

The author would like to acknowledge the valuable comments and data provided by Michael Albertus, Catherine Boone, Gary Cox, David Laitin, Scott Newman, Jonathan Rodden, Aliya Saperstein, Marijke Verpoorten, Jeremy Weinstein, and David Yanagizawa-Drott; conference participants at UCLA CO MPASS; and the Migration, Ethnicity, Race, and Nation and Comparative Politics seminars at Stanford University. The author would also like to thank the three anonymous reviewers and the editors of World Politics for their incisive and constructive comments that much improved the paper.

Replication materials are available at McNamee 2018a.

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