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HPAI impacts on Chinese chicken meat supply and demand

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 August 2017

Z. HUANG ,
A. LOCH Open the ORCID record for A. LOCH [Opens in a new window] ,
C. FINDLAY  and
J. WANG
Z. HUANG
Affiliation:
Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing China
A. LOCH*
Affiliation:
Centre for Global Food and Resources, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia
C. FINDLAY
Affiliation:
Faculty of the Professions, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia
J. WANG
Affiliation:
Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing China
*
Corresponding author: adam.loch@adelaide.edu.au
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Abstract

Chicken meat is an economically important part of Chinese food security, but has suffered relatively consistent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks since 2004. This review evaluates the extent of quantity losses caused by HPAI events on Chinese chicken meat supply and demand (domestic production, consumption, imports and exports) between 2004 and 2013, using a partial equilibrium model. The largest losses were experienced in 2004 and 2005 (4,496,700 tons) which accounted for 38.84% and 33.76% of total respectively. Across the full review period the largest impacts were on per capita consumption (2.7 million tons) followed by production (2.5 million tons), imports (0.73 million tons) and exports (0.21 million tons). Research suggests that higher imports of chicken meat during HPAI events, branding strategies and investment in food safety management through the sector may help to avoid or minimise future HPAI losses in China.

Keywords

avian influenzapartial equilibrium modelloss evaluationChina
Type
Reviews
Information
World's Poultry Science Journal , Volume 73 , Issue 3 , September 2017 , pp. 543 - 558
Copyright
Copyright © World's Poultry Science Association 2017 

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