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Dead rats, dopamine, performance metrics, and peacock tails: Proxy failure is an inherent risk in goal-oriented systems

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 June 2023

Yohan J. John Open the ORCID record for Yohan J. John [Opens in a new window] ,
Leigh Caldwell ,
Dakota E. McCoy Open the ORCID record for Dakota E. McCoy [Opens in a new window]  and
Oliver Braganza Open the ORCID record for Oliver Braganza [Opens in a new window]
Yohan J. John
Affiliation:
Neural Systems Laboratory, Department of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA yohan@bu.edu
Leigh Caldwell
Affiliation:
Irrational Agency, London, UK leigh@irrationalagency.com
Dakota E. McCoy
Affiliation:
Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA mccoy6@stanford.edu Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
Oliver Braganza*
Affiliation:
Institute for Experimental Epileptology and Cognition Research, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Institute for Socioeconomics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany
*
Corresponding author: Oliver Braganza; Email: oliver.braganza@ukbonn.de
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Abstract

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. For example, when standardized test scores in education become targets, teachers may start “teaching to the test,” leading to breakdown of the relationship between the measure – test performance – and the underlying goal – quality education. Similar phenomena have been named and described across a broad range of contexts, such as economics, academia, machine learning, and ecology. Yet it remains unclear whether these phenomena bear only superficial similarities, or if they derive from some fundamental unifying mechanism. Here, we propose such a unifying mechanism, which we label proxy failure. We first review illustrative examples and their labels, such as the “cobra effect,” “Goodhart's law,” and “Campbell's law.” Second, we identify central prerequisites and constraints of proxy failure, noting that it is often only a partial failure or divergence. We argue that whenever incentivization or selection is based on an imperfect proxy measure of the underlying goal, a pressure arises that tends to make the proxy a worse approximation of the goal. Third, we develop this perspective for three concrete contexts, namely neuroscience, economics, and ecology, highlighting similarities and differences. Fourth, we outline consequences of proxy failure, suggesting it is key to understanding the structure and evolution of goal-oriented systems. Our account draws on a broad range of disciplines, but we can only scratch the surface within each. We thus hope the present account elicits a collaborative enterprise, entailing both critical discussion as well as extensions in contexts we have missed.

Keywords

Goodhart's lawCampbell's lawgoal displacementthe cobra effectthe McNamara fallacyaddictionsignallingthe proxy treadmillproxyeconomics
Type
Target Article
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Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 47 , 2024 , e67
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Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press

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