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15200 results in ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

Page 192 of 760

  • New Context of Vietnam's National Security Challenges

  • Nguyen Manh Hung
  • Book:
    New Context of Vietnam's National Security Challenges
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    09 March 2019
    Print publication:
    28 November 2016, pp 1-33

  • Summary

    Concept of National Security

    Vietnam has a distinctive concept of national security. Unlike most countries where national security relates to the survival of the state, to Vietnam it is, according to a senior Vietnamese diplomat, “the survival of the ruling regime that acts in the name of [the] country”.

    Its latest defence White Paper, “Vietnam's Defence Policy at the beginning of the 21st Century,” while declaring that the country was ready to defend itself against “all aggression, threat against national security, infringement on its national interests”, insisted that the “preservation of a peaceful and stable environment for economic and social development, the achievement of industrialization and modernization under socialist orientation are the highest national interests”.

    A major architect of Vietnam's defence diplomacy, Vice-Minister of Defence Senior General Nguyen Chi Vinh insisted that defence diplomacy is only an “important part of, and an instrument to implement the [broader] foreign policy of the Party and State in defence matters”. While asserting that defence diplomacy must contribute, and has contributed, to “the defence of the country's independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, and national interests”, he linked this traditional mission of the military to the mission of protecting the party and socialism. According to him:

    Defence diplomacy contributes to the struggle against peaceful evolution and subversive violence, protects the Party and socialism and political stability to develop the country, and plays an important role in the mission of providing solid protection for the country's independence, sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.

    His superior, former Defence Minister Phung Quang Thanh, made clear that: “Today, [the task of] protecting the fatherland does not only mean maintaining the country's independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, but also protecting the Party, state, people and the socialist regime …”

    The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) which prides itself for having led the successful struggle for the country's independence finds it impossible to separate the protection of national sovereignty and territorial integrity from the leadership of the party. Resolution No. 28-NQ/TW of the party Central Committee on 25 October 2013 stressed that “In both wars of resistance against France and the United States, our party always fought under two banners: national independence and socialism and have achieved complete victory. Realities have also demonstrated that [it was] only by persistently linking national independence to socialism that our country won true independence.”

  • The Johor Sultanate: Rise or Re-emergence?

  • Francis E. Hutchinson, Vandana Prakash Nair
  • Book:
    The Johor Sultanate
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    13 March 2019
    Print publication:
    28 November 2016, pp vii-vii

  • Summary

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • • Malaysia's sultans have in recent years taken on an increasingly discernible role in the country's political life. However, rather than something new, the rulers’ resurgence should be viewed as part of a longer term negotiation over the precise boundaries of their role.

  • • The Sultan of Johor, Ibrahim Ismail, is arguably the most visible of the country's rulers at present. Since ascending to the throne in 2010, he has constructed a prominent media profile and been active in many areas of policy-making. He reinstated the Islamic week, suggested expanding the role of the Johor Military Force, and promoted a unique state identity. Planned initiatives by him include a Bank of Johor, a large-scale low-cost housing scheme, as well as a maglev train linking the eastern and western parts of the state's southern coast.

  • • Sultan Ibrahim Ismail has also weighed in on national-level issues, such as the quality of national education and bilateral relations with Singapore.

  • • While the more ceremonial aspects of his actions are inspired by the pivotal role traditionally played by Malay rulers, the more operational aspects hark back to the colonial era when Johor had a reputation for modern administration, well-developed infrastructure, and a high degree of autonomy.

  • • At its core, the Sultan raises questions about Malay leadership, and may revive a long-standing contest between the rulers and the political elite, sometimes referred to as a battle between “princes and politicians”.

  • Foreword

  • Nguyen Manh Hung
  • Book:
    New Context of Vietnam's National Security Challenges
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    09 March 2019
    Print publication:
    28 November 2016, pp v-vi

  • Summary

    The economic, political, strategic and cultural dynamism in Southeast Asia has gained added relevance in recent years with the spectacular rise of giant economies in East and South Asia. This has drawn greater attention to the region and to the enhanced role it now plays in international relations and global economics.

    The sustained effort made by Southeast Asian nations since 1967 towards a peaceful and gradual integration of their economies has had indubitable success, and perhaps as a consequence of this, most of these countries are undergoing deep political and social changes domestically and are constructing innovative solutions to meet new international challenges. Big Power tensions continue to be played out in the neighbourhood despite the tradition of neutrality exercised by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

    The Trends in Southeast Asia series acts as a platform for serious analyses by selected authors who are experts in their fields. It is aimed at encouraging policy makers and scholars to contemplate the diversity and dynamism of this exciting region.

  • New Context of Vietnam's National Security Challenges

  • Nguyen Manh Hung
  • Book:
    New Context of Vietnam's National Security Challenges
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    09 March 2019
    Print publication:
    28 November 2016, pp vii-viii

  • Summary

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • • Vietnam's concept of national security is based on “the survival of the ruling regime that acts in the name of the country”. This is unlike in many countries where national security relates merely to the survival of the state.

  • • Because the challenges to Vietnam's national security are perceived as challenges and threats to the ruling regime, the concept of national security tends to focus on the internal dimension of national security.

  • • The Mid-term National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) in 1994 listed “four threats” facing the country, namely, the danger of falling behind neighbouring countries economically; the threat of “peaceful evolution”; deviation from socialism; and corruption and bureaucratism. None of them, except for peaceful evolution, comes from outside.

  • • Today, these threats remain but are now joined by the threat of “self-evolution” or “self-transformation” leading to socialist deviation and peaceful evolution, as well as the threat to national sovereignty and territorial integrity resulting from the conflict in the South China Sea.

  • • Consequently, the military is tasked not only with the mission of protecting the fatherland but also protecting “the party, state, people and the socialist regime”.

  • • The Twelfth National Congress of the CPV in 2016 attempted to re-establish the control of the party over the state; to launch a renewed effort to combat corruption and purge the party of those who exhibited signs of degeneration in morality, political thinking and lifestyle; and earn the people's trust.

  • • Today, China is the only external threat to Vietnam's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the focal point of that threat is the South China Sea.

  • • Vietnam has responded to this threat with a three-point policy: accommodating China's security interests; building up self-defence capability; and mobilizing international support.

  • • The strategy to mobilize international support is based on three elements: reliance on diplomacy and international law; mobilizing international support through integration in the regional and international system and a policy of “openness, multilateralization and diversification of foreign relations”; and soft balancing between the major powers.

  • 4 - Cost of Running a Society

  • from II - POLITICS
  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp 94-115

  • Summary

    Societies are not free. The benefits of living with others have been recognized since our species first emerged, but those benefits have never been without cost — and in modern society we can calculate costs very precisely and distribute them in different ways. This is the very subject matter of politics. What is needed is a holistic approach summarizing public, private and hidden costs, and the added opportunity costs. Over decades an ongoing debate has tried to compare these costs in a welfare society versus a more free-market economy. In a straight-line comparison of public costs, the free-market economy wins, but including the other elements in a holistic approach makes this result uncertain. A welfare society could better mobilize a society's entire talent mass and costs of enforcement, with less loss of working time. The objective is to forge a smooth running society at the lowest total cost.

    Key Concepts

    The basic question is what kind of society do the majority of voters want? From there, the society can consider specific sectors — such as education, healthcare and infrastructure — and move on to decide whether public or private ownership is preferable. How the key concepts are tackled depends to a large degree on how equality and fairness is perceived.

    A society is, broadly speaking, a network of individuals, organizations/ institutions and businesses kept together through congruent interests, analogous political goals and a sense of fairness. It costs money. The large majority must feel better off inside than outside, after having paid their share of expenditures to finance common activities.

    It may well be that some of them would be even better off by moving to another society or community or country, but there are at least two barriers. First, they may be better off economically in a different country, but suffer significant personal and psychological “costs” from living outside the culture they were raised in and understand — their identity, values and group associations. Second, moving costs money as well and brings uncertainty and the risk of a net loss.

    The challenge is how to maximize the level of goods and services, minimize the number of people and capital in non-productive sectors, and generate the highest possible social coherence. We want to minimize the number of people who feel socially and culturally outside or sidelined.

  • 1 - The Conventional Outlook

  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp 1-18

  • Summary

    Economic indicators augur lower global growth over the next quarter of a century. The main culprits are debt and falling productivity. At the same time, we are experiencing a shift in global economic power — to the disadvantage of existing economic heavyweights such as the United States, Europe and Japan — due to major trends in demographics and savings. Africa may turn out to be a major economic player, while Russia and the Middle East may diminish in power. All this will influence geopolitics, but it may also be instrumental in the economic sphere — forcing a change in global economic policies and the way people look at economics.

    The Global Outlook Horizon, 2030

    Over the next fifteen years, new or accelerating trends in debt, demography, urbanization, global savings, innovation, productivity and energy will transform the global power structure, with unprecedented speed, magnitude and impact.

    Debt: Debt will lower the rate of global growth and limit the room to manoeuvre, especially for Japan, the United States, Britain and South Korea. In 2013 the Bank for International Settlements (BIS 2013) analysed how much fiscal tightening major countries will need to make in order to achieve a sustainable position in their public debt by the year 2040. For the United States, the figure was 14.1 per cent, for Japan 14.9 per cent, Britain 13.2 and Korea 11.9. The eurozone countries — often considered to be languishing in a debt trap — presented a much more promising picture. Germany was expected to need only an additional 3.4 per cent of fiscal tightening, France 5.4 per cent, Italy 4.0 and Spain 11.4. China, meanwhile, will need 2.5 per cent and India 3.7 per cent.

    When it comes to private corporate debt, it is the emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE) that appear to be in a more vulnerable position, compared to developed countries. Their share of world corporate debt has risen steadily in recent years, while in the industrial countries there has been a slight deleveraging in this segment of debt (The Economist 2015).

    A more immediate concern is the proposed interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which threatens the position of industrial economies and EMDEs alike, though in different ways.

  • 11 - Power Shift – Values

  • from IV - GEOPOLITICS
  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp 245-262

  • Summary

    The structure of alliances forged since 1945 is gradually breaking up. The political architecture designed by Western powers for the Middle East and Africa was artificial and did not reflect the realities of history, religion or tribal structure. The global picture is volatile. Leadership is nowhere to be found and is inadequately replaced by tactical manoeuvring. Nation-states are behaving in less predictable ways. Values take over as the predominant factor driving international actions, often undertaken by non-governmental operators. Asymmetrical and hybrid warfare — a mix of soft and hard power — blurs the distinction between war and peace. Global governance has not managed to digest these trends, and even less to adapt to them, allowing a dangerous power vacuum to arise. The main question is whether globalization can survive.

    Shift in Parameters: Imperial Power,Hyperpower — The Response of the United States

    Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State announce a new kind of empire: Values-based empires kept together across political borders by shared and common values, anchored in religious beliefs. This runs counter to the operation of geopolitical power as seen over the last couple of centuries, which explains why existing powers (the United States and Europe) find it so difficult to respond and react to them. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been by far the strongest power, but has not been able to transform that status into a long-term strategy, either to maintain U.S hegemony or to shape another global power structure. Military power is still effective, but less so than in the past. The lesson that only values-based empires can endure has not been learned.

    The Middle East in general, and the so-called Islamic State in particular, may be the barometer of what is to come: Values overcoming economics and military power. The political structure in this part of the world — invented after World War I and revised after World War II — is artificial, neither rooted in history nor reflecting indigenous tribal power, ethnicity or religious relationships. Groups that had fought each other for centuries suddenly found themselves inside the same political framework, with the expectation that they replace hatred with friendship.

  • 6 - Business Model – The Firm

  • from II - POLITICS
  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp 135-148

  • Summary

    Broadly speaking, the economic theory of the firm says that it is more profitable to conduct all activities under one roof in order to achieve increasing economies of scale and to minimize transaction costs such as transport and logistics. This assumption is being contradicted today by new technology. At the same time, firm ownership is undergoing fundamental changes, which call into question the firm's role in society.

    Ownership

    Industrialization created enterprises which operated locally, and constituted a bond between owners, citizens and the local community. This belongs to the past. Very few major enterprises operate in a local environment. Blurred ownership means that owners take no interest in local communities. In many cases, those owners are financial or investment funds, looking for a surge in the stock price so they can get out with a quick profit, with no interest in the long-term future of the company they own.

    The world is moving into a new kind of corporate capitalism — combining a concentration of financial power with comparatively few corporations controlling communication, increasing anonymous ownership, a business sector decoupling from the public sector and the population, the breakup of big corporations, and the movement of employment out from large corporations. The expansion of ICTs and globalization have also contributed.

    This is a model the world has not seen before and does not fully understand. Yet it entails massive social and economic upheavals.

    The business sector no longer sees much reason for working inside a social contract with the government and the population. On the contrary, it looks upon the government as a cash cow to take over burdens it is unwilling to shoulder itself, and the population as a mass of consumers to be squeezed.

    One of the principal causes of the global economic crisis was the financial sector's success in convincing the government and the population that deregulation would stimulate economic activity and bring benefits to all. What happened was something very different. The financial sector used deregulation to undertake high-risk, high-return operations, and reaped the profit without preparing for rainy days. The crisis was largely a result of reckless lending.

  • Preface

  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp ix-xvi

  • Summary

    Over the last two decades, three issues have occupied my mind:

    1. Has the digital era segmented or united the world? Has instant access to data and global networking made people more broad-minded and tolerant of diversity, or has it merely reinforced the views of likeminded individuals?

    2. People accept globalization when it delivers prosperity and winners outnumber losers. But will globalization be more resented and resisted as the world enters a long period of slow or no growth?

    3. How can in-groups that share common values deal with out-groups that don't? Is it possible to be truly inclusive without demonizing those that are outside the tent?

    My modest aim in this book is to dissect these questions from an historical perspective — to see how far the world has come, and what lies ahead if current trends continue.

    So, let us begin with history.

    From 1618 to 1648 Europe was torn apart by a devastating and ruthless war. It was waged with a fanaticism nourished by religious extremism, which absolved soldiers who committed atrocities because it was God's will and done in God's name. Out of this debacle came the Westphalian system, giving rise to the nation-state.

    Fundamentally, the conflict in Europe was about who should have the right to define ethics, norms, values and behavioural patterns in a Europe baffled after Martin Luther's challenging of the Catholic Church, and still struggling to digest the social repercussions of the information revolution inaugurated by the printing press and movable type.

    The global picture today resembles this earlier situation in many ways — the religious fanaticism, the chaotic warfare and social breakdown all speak to our liveliest fears of today, especially when their effects can be multiplied by the sinister use of modern weaponry and technology.

    The Thirty Years War put Europe on the road to a unique constellation of military power, economic influence and political thinking. The main thread was the jump from the local to the national level. People lost their affiliations to smaller communities and stopped knowing or caring about their neighbours. This initiated a long march towards dehumanization, denaturalization and high power distance. Before the Thirty Years War, “power” was rarely exercised outside the local level.

  • 9 - Human Behaviour

  • from III - ECONOMICS
  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp 216-229

  • Summary

    Economics is a social science and the social sciences are about humans and human behaviour. Studies conducted in the other social sciences make it clear that humans behave very differently than the way economics assumes. The gene structure favours an altruistic attitude — not egoism. People tend to form groups, seeing this to be the best chance of survival. They cooperate with each other inside the groups and tend to rally against out-groups, whom they often see as a threat. The relations inside groups and among the members may be governed by three types of socio-economic patterns: a market economy, a tributary economy, and a kin-oriented system. Parts of all three patterns are found in most societies all over the world. How they interact with each other may differ from place to place. Human behaviour is not the same irrespective of background, religion, nature and upbringing (culture in a broad sense). On the contrary, different people will respond differently to similar questions, particularly in relation to other human beings, depending on exactly those cultural elements. It would seem that much of the social sciences themselves, and particularly economics, falls into this category — being based on studies by people and of people with a Western background, and with diminishing validity as it is applied beyond that base.

    On the evidence of the other social sciences and recent brain research, it is quite clear that human beings are not the Homo oeconomciusof economic myth and that the pursuit of happiness is not inextricably linked to money. Fulfilment or “happiness” are deeper and longer-lasting feelings than those derived from material consumption — primarily because they bring in the human factor, and let human beings see and feel that they do something for others.

    Aaker et al. (2011) conclude that, “To get maximum happiness out of time, people need to use it in ways that cultivate personal meaning and social connections. Although the time spent strengthening your relationships with friends and family is likely to bring the greatest happiness, it is also possible to derive pleasure from 1) spending time with people not typically associated with happiness (e.g., workplace friends)…

  • Foreword

  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp vii-viii

  • Summary

    It is more than fifteen years since Joseph Stiglitz wrote Globalization and its Discontents, with the message that there is evidence of much unhappiness with the way global reforms have been taking place and how they have impacted developing and poor countries. Stiglitz concluded that the main issue is not with globalization, but rather that the process of management was very much lacking. And now Stiglitz in his latest book, Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy, has argued that the message he had about globalization is now affecting the advanced economies.

    Professor Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller is never one to evade the complexities and subtleties of current affairs. He pursues the issues of the day with an intellectual curiosity, clarity of thought, and completeness that is enriched by his vast experience in the Danish diplomatic service, policymaking and academia. In this book he uses an interdisciplinary approach to discuss the intrinsic issues, including globalization, that are shaping the world.

    Professor Møller identifies the pessimism in current affairs and the apprehensiveness in the global economy as a veil over policymakers. He proposes that a paradigm shift is needed to lift this veil. The concept of a paradigm shift — a fundamental change in approach or underlying assumptions when existing ones can no longer serve as a framework to a discipline — is rooted in science and technology. While there is much debate on the effect of science and technology on the economy, they are much more profoundly felt across the human landscape.

    In health sciences, advances in biotechnology such as embryo selection, where we can cultivate and screen embryos for genetic diseases, and gene splicing, where we can then proceed to edit out the diseases we have missed, promise to revolutionize human reproduction and healthcare.

    Robotics, big data and artificial intelligence form the basis of technologies such as self-driving vehicles, drones and 3D printing that loom over our contemporary workforce. The use and usefulness of social media continue to be topics of debate. The Pokémon Go phenomenon has shown how virtual reality is being inverted into augmented reality.

    In the current political and societal climate, where populism and personalities trump logic and reasoning, how do we grapple with political and power structures, societal values and economic theory to reasonably frame and implement a conversation about the impact of these technologies on our future?

  • 10 - Interdisciplinary – Complexity

  • from III - ECONOMICS
  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp 230-242

  • Summary

    As an intellectual tool, economics is no longer sufficient to analyse events and offer solutions to problems, due to the field's neglect of the realities of basic human behaviour. Incorporating interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral analyses has become imperative. The next step is to introduce the element of complexity to the study, as events continuously interact with other events, changing the picture incessantly. A way forward might be to replace deduction (from theory to the specific case) with induction (from specifics to a broader theoretical understanding). One suitable instrument to illuminate the nature and effects of these interactions, irrespective of scientific disciplines, could be big data. These three — complexity, big data and induction — might offer us a range of various outcomes to choose from, instead of the single-answer approach.

    Economic theory has never really managed to incorporate Kenneth Arrow's (1974) basic observation that “Virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust, certainly any transaction conducted over a period of time.”

    Admittedly, concepts such as social capital and social coherence have been the object of analysis for a number of years, but economists do not really take into account the massive importance of such factors.

    If a society or community manages to establish common values, the cost savings are enormous. If, based on common values, people come to basically trust each other's motives, then the financial system will serve as an intermediary between savings and investment, the judicial system will translate into rules what the population already feels it is right to do anyway.

    Alternatively, if a society is deficient in social capital, people do not trust each other, the financial system does not receive savings, which are instead hoarded in the form of gold or cash, there are few links between savings and investment, the judicial system's common rules will be interpreted differently by different social groups, leading to a cumbersome system that gobbles up resources and needs a large and expensive system to ensure compliance.

    Without common values there is no trust among people. Trust means that people accept that decisions of vital importance to them can be made by other people.

  • 7 - The Transition

  • from III - ECONOMICS
  • Jørgen Ørstrøm Møller
  • Book:
    The Veil of Circumstance
    Published by:
    ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
    Published online:
    19 May 2017
    Print publication:
    17 November 2016, pp 151-163

  • Summary

    No economic model lasts forever. Industrialization served the world for more than two hundred years, but is now crumbling — by faster and cheaper communications and growing resource scarcities.

    Key Concepts

    The object of economics is to satisfy human needs, to make people happy. Increasingly, mass communication is replacing mass consumption as the main vehicle in this search for “happiness”. The availability of resources dictates production processes. From the beginning of the industrial revolution to the year 2000, the international terms of trade favoured resource-importing countries. Since then the trend has reversed, foreshadowing an era of economic or possibly physical scarcity.

    A transition in economics occurs when the conditions underlying economic transactions force fundamental changes in the economic behaviour of companies, individuals and the public sector. It is not important whether these conditions are economic, technological or cultural — what matters is that they change economic behaviour. Economic operators and decisionmakers start to do things they did not do before, and the things they were doing before, they now do differently.

    The industrial revolution was itself such a transition — going far beyond just economics — constituting a paradigm shift as defined by Kuhn (1970). Basically, economic operators replaced manpower with steam engines. About a hundred years later, electricity triggered a new transformation, as did the motor car. Around 1950, the first signs of an audio-visual revolution became visible, initiating new methods of communication.

    Economists have jumped at the opportunity to explain why, when and where these revolutions happened. Explanations based on interactions between technology, societal norms and the organization of societies takes us some of the way. To this must be added the size of the market as a driver. Britain could not rely on the British Isles solely, and was forced by economics to build an empire. The United States had a larger market than Germany, which enabled it to make itself Britain's successor.

    At the beginning of the twenty-first century, two new transitions loom ahead of us, promising opportunities, risks, and even dangers.

    The first of these is the transition from mass consumption to mass communication, turning on the most basic question of all — what constitutes human happiness or well-being? What makes human beings feel comfortable and at ease?

Page 192 of 760