People with schizophrenia-spectrum and bipolar disorders (severe mental illnesses; ‘SMI’) experience excess mortality. Our aim was to explore longer-term trends in mortality, including the COVID-19 pandemic period, with a focus on additional vulnerabilities (psychiatric comorbidities and race/ ethnicity) in SMI.

Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from secondary mental healthcare, covering a UK region of 1.3 million people. Mortality trends spanning fourteen years, including the COVID-19 pandemic, were assessed in adults with clinician-ascribed ICD-10 diagnoses for schizophrenia-spectrum and bipolar disorders.

The sample comprised 22 361 people with SMI with median follow-up of 10.6 years. Standardized mortality ratios were more than double the population average pre-pandemic, increasing further during the pandemic, particularly in those with SMI and psychiatric comorbidities. Mortality risk increased steadily among people with SMI and comorbid depression, dementia, substance use disorders and anxiety over 13-years, increasing further during the pandemic. COVID-19 mortality was elevated in people with SMI and comorbid depression (sub-Hazard Ratio: 1.48 [95% CI 1.03–2.13]), dementia (sHR:1.96, 1.26–3.04) and learning disabilities (sHR:2.30, 1.30–4.06), compared to people with only SMI. COVID-19 mortality risk was similar for minority ethnic groups and White British people with SMI. Elevated all-cause mortality was evident in Black Caribbean (adjusted Rate Ratio: 1.40, 1.11–1.77) and Black African people with SMI (aRR: 1.59, 1.07–2.37) during the pandemic relative to earlier years.

Mortality has increased over time in people with SMI. The pandemic exacerbated pre-existing trends. Actionable solutions are needed which address wider social determinants and address disease silos.

Clinical guidelines recommend providing physical activity interventions (PAIs) to people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder for weight management. However, the cost-effectiveness of PAIs is unknown.

To evaluate the availability and methodological quality of economic evaluations of PAIs for people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder.

Four databases (MEDLINE, Embase, PsycInfo and Scopus) were searched on 5 July 2022. Based on the retrieved studies, forward and backward citation searches were conducted. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using the Drummond checklist. Review results were presented using narrative synthesis.

Fourteen articles reporting nine studies were included. All included studies assessed PAIs within a multicomponent lifestyle intervention. Mixed findings were reported on the cost-effectiveness of multicomponent lifestyle intervention: three studies reported it as cost-effective; four studies reported it as not cost-effective; and two studies did not conclude whether it was cost-effective or not. Very limited evidence suggests that certain patient subgroups might be more likely to benefit from multicomponent lifestyle interventions with a PAI component: men; individuals with comorbid type 2 diabetes; and individuals who have been psychiatric hospital in-patients for ≥1 year. The quality of included studies ranged from moderate to high.

The current economic evidence suggests that not all modalities of multicomponent lifestyle intervention including a PAI component are cost-effective for people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder; and not all people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder would benefit equally from the intervention. Future research is urgently needed to identify the cost-effective modality of PAI for different patient subgroups.

Pharmacological treatment patterns for bipolar disorder have changed during recent years, but for better or worse?

To investigate the comparative real-world effectiveness of antipsychotics and mood stabilisers in bipolar disorder.

Register-based cohort study including all Finnish residents aged 16–65 with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder from in-patient care, specialised out-patient care, sickness absence and disability pensions registers between 1996 and 2018, with a mean follow-up of 9.3 years (s.d. = 6.4). Antipsychotic and mood stabiliser use was modelled using the PRE2DUP method and risk for hospital admission for psychiatric and non-psychiatric reasons when using versus not using medications was estimated using within-individual Cox models.

Among 60 045 individuals (56.4% female; mean age 41.7 years, s.d. = 15.8), the five medications associated with lowest risk of psychiatric admissions were olanzapine long-acting injection (LAI) (aHR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.37–0.80), haloperidol LAI (aHR = 0.62, 0.47–0.81), zuclopenthixol LAI (aHR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.52–0.85), lithium (aHR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.71–0.76) and clozapine (aHR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.64–0.87). Only ziprasidone (aHR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.07–1.49) was associated with a statistically higher risk. For non-psychiatric (somatic) admissions, only lithium (aHR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.74–0.81) and carbamazepine (aHR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.85–0.97) were associated with significantly reduced risk, whereas pregabalin, gabapentin and several oral antipsychotics, including quetiapine, were associated with an increased risk. Results for a subcohort of first-episode patients (26 395 individuals, 54.9% female; mean age 38.2 years, s.d. = 13.0) were in line with those of the total cohort.

Lithium and certain LAI antipsychotics were associated with lowest risks of psychiatric admission. Lithium was the only treatment associated with decreased risk of both psychiatric and somatic admissions.

Lithium has long been recognised as an effective treatment for bipolar disorder. Its relative efficacy has been measured with a diverse range of clinical outcomes, resulting in differences in efficacy reporting that have not been systematically reviewed.

We aimed to identify and compare the various measures of lithium efficacy employed in interventional studies for people with bipolar disorder.

Database (PubMed, Web of Science) and hand searches were performed to identify studies that assessed a clinical response in patients with bipolar disorder who received lithium, up to the end of 2021. We included primary human interventional studies without excluding specific study designs, bipolar disorder subtypes, duration or dosage of lithium treatment. Continuous outcome effects were meta-analysed; binary outcomes were synthesised visually and narratively. The Cochrane risk-of-bias tool was used to assess study-level risk of bias.

Seventy-one studies were included (N = 30 542). Approximately two-thirds of participants attained a clinically significant improvement in manic or depressive symptoms, and over 50% achieved remission. About a third required hospital admission (study length 2–12 years) and around 50% needed further treatment to stay well or had recurrence of symptoms; the latter two outcomes tended to be assessed over long-term maintenance periods.

An abundance of measurements have been used to assess lithium's clinical effects, across several study designs. Despite the resultant high heterogeneity, an overall picture of lithium's effects emerges that supports previous literature; between half and two-thirds of patients respond well to lithium across varying outcome measures, baseline mood states, study durations and bipolar disorder subtypes.

Individuals living with severe mental illness can have significant emotional, physical and social challenges. Collaborative care combines clinical and organisational components.

We tested whether a primary care-based collaborative care model (PARTNERS) would improve quality of life for people with diagnoses of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder or other psychoses, compared with usual care.

We conducted a general practice-based, cluster randomised controlled superiority trial. Practices were recruited from four English regions and allocated (1:1) to intervention or control. Individuals receiving limited input in secondary care or who were under primary care only were eligible. The 12-month PARTNERS intervention incorporated person-centred coaching support and liaison work. The primary outcome was quality of life as measured by the Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life (MANSA).

We allocated 39 general practices, with 198 participants, to the PARTNERS intervention (20 practices, 116 participants) or control (19 practices, 82 participants). Primary outcome data were available for 99 (85.3%) intervention and 71 (86.6%) control participants. Mean change in overall MANSA score did not differ between the groups (intervention: 0.25, s.d. 0.73; control: 0.21, s.d. 0.86; estimated fully adjusted between-group difference 0.03, 95% CI −0.25 to 0.31; P = 0.819). Acute mental health episodes (safety outcome) included three crises in the intervention group and four in the control group.

There was no evidence of a difference in quality of life, as measured with the MANSA, between those receiving the PARTNERS intervention and usual care. Shifting care to primary care was not associated with increased adverse outcomes.

Current psychiatric diagnoses, although heritable, have not been clearly mapped onto distinct underlying pathogenic processes. The same symptoms often occur in multiple disorders, and a substantial proportion of both genetic and environmental risk factors are shared across disorders. However, the relationship between shared symptoms and shared genetic liability is still poorly understood.

Well-characterised, cross-disorder samples are needed to investigate this matter, but few currently exist. Our aim is to develop procedures to purposely curate and aggregate genotypic and phenotypic data in psychiatric research.

As part of the Cardiff MRC Mental Health Data Pathfinder initiative, we have curated and harmonised phenotypic and genetic information from 15 studies to create a new data repository, DRAGON-Data. To date, DRAGON-Data includes over 45 000 individuals: adults and children with neurodevelopmental or psychiatric diagnoses, affected probands within collected families and individuals who carry a known neurodevelopmental risk copy number variant.

We have processed the available phenotype information to derive core variables that can be reliably analysed across groups. In addition, all data-sets with genotype information have undergone rigorous quality control, imputation, copy number variant calling and polygenic score generation.

DRAGON-Data combines genetic and non-genetic information, and is available as a resource for research across traditional psychiatric diagnostic categories. Algorithms and pipelines used for data harmonisation are currently publicly available for the scientific community, and an appropriate data-sharing protocol will be developed as part of ongoing projects (DATAMIND) in partnership with Health Data Research UK.

Recent developments in computational psychiatry have led to the hypothesis that mood represents an expectation (prior belief) on the likely interoceptive consequences of action (i.e. emotion). This stems from ideas about how the brain navigates its external world by minimising an upper bound on surprisal (free energy) of sensory information and echoes developments in other perceptual domains.

In this paper we aim to present a simple partial observable Markov decision process that models mood updating in response to stressful or non-stressful environmental fluctuations while seeking to minimise surprisal in relation to prior beliefs about the likely interoceptive signals experienced with specific actions (attenuating or amplifying stress and pleasure signals).

We examine how, by altering these prior beliefs we can model mood updating in depression, mania and anxiety.

We discuss how these models provide a computational account of mood and its related psychopathology and relate it to previous research in reward processing.

Models such as this can provide hypotheses for experimental work and also open up the potential modelling of predicted disease trajectories in individual patients.

Despite increasing evidence for the effectiveness of individual psychological interventions for bipolar disorder, research on older adults is lacking. We report the first randomised controlled trial of psychological therapy designed specifically for older adults with bipolar disorder.

To evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of recovery-focused therapy, designed in collaboration with older people living with bipolar disorder.

A parallel, two-armed, randomised controlled trial comparing treatment as usual with up to 14 sessions of recovery-focused therapy plus treatment as usual, for older adults with bipolar disorder.

Thirty-nine participants (67% female, mean age 67 years) were recruited over a 17-month period. Feasibility and acceptability of recruitment, retention (>80% observer-rated outcomes at both 24 and 48 weeks) and intervention processes were demonstrated. The majority of participants started therapy when offered, adhered to the intervention (68% attended all sessions and 89% attended six or more sessions) and reported positive benefits. Clinical assessment measures provide evidence of a signal for effectiveness on a range of outcomes including mood symptoms, time to relapse and functioning. No trial-related serious adverse events were identified.

Recovery-focused therapy is feasible, acceptable and has the potential to improve a range of outcomes for people living with bipolar disorder in later life. A large-scale trial is warranted to provide a reliable estimate of its clinical and cost-effectiveness.

Progress towards understanding the aetiology of major depression is compromised by its clinical heterogeneity. The variety of contexts underlying the development of a major depressive episode may contribute to such heterogeneity.

To compare risk factor profiles for three subgroups of major depression according to episode context.

Using self-report questionnaires and administrative records from the UK Biobank, we characterised three contextual subgroups of major depression: postpartum depression (3581 cases), depression following diagnosis of a chronic disease (409 cases) and a more typical (named heterogeneous) major depression phenotype excluding the two other contexts (34 699 cases). Controls with the same exposure were also defined. We tested each subgroup for association with the polygenic risk scores (PRS) for major depression and with other risk factors previously associated with major depression (bipolar disorder PRS, neuroticism, reported trauma in childhood and adulthood, socioeconomic status, family history of depression, education).

Major depression PRS was associated with all subgroups, but postpartum depression cases had higher PRS than heterogeneous major depression cases (OR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.02–1.10). Relative to heterogeneous depression, postpartum depression was more weakly associated with adulthood trauma and neuroticism. Depression following diagnosis of a chronic disease had weaker association with neuroticism and reported trauma in adulthood and childhood relative to heterogeneous depression.

The observed differences in risk factor profiles according to the context of a major depressive episode help provide insight into the heterogeneity of depression. Future studies dissecting such heterogeneity could help reveal more refined aetiological insights.

DIALOG+ is an evidence-based, generic, cost-saving and easily deliverable psychosocial intervention, adaptable to clinicians’ personal manner of interaction with patients. It was implemented in mental health services in five low- and middle-income countries in South-Eastern Europe during a 12-month randomised-controlled trial (IMPULSE) to improve the effectiveness of out-patient treatment for people with psychotic disorders.

To investigate barriers and facilitators to the perceived sustainability of DIALOG+ that has been successfully implemented as a part of the IMPULSE project.

Three months after the IMPULSE trial's end, perceived sustainability of the DIALOG+ intervention was assessed via a short survey of clinicians and patients who took part in the trial. Quantitative data collected from the survey were analysed using descriptive statistics; content analysis assessed qualitative survey data. The views and experiences of key informants (patients, clinicians and healthcare policy influencers) regarding the sustainability and scale-up of DIALOG+ were further explored through semi-structured interviews. These data were explored using framework analysis.

Clinicians mostly appreciated the comprehensiveness of DIALOG+, and patients described DIALOG+ meetings as empowering and motivating. The barrier most commonly identified by key informants was availability of financial resources; the most important facilitators were the clinically relevant structure and comprehensiveness of the DIALOG+ intervention.

Participants showed a willingness to sustain the implementation of DIALOG+. It is important to maintain collaboration with healthcare policy influencers to improve implementation of DIALOG+ across different levels of healthcare systems and ensure availability of resources for implementing psychosocial interventions such as DIALOG+.

Bipolar disorder is a chronic and severe mental health disorder. Early stratification of individuals into subgroups based on age at onset (AAO) has the potential to inform diagnosis and early intervention. Yet, the psychosocial predictors associated with AAO are unknown.

We aim to identify psychosocial factors associated with bipolar disorder AAO.

Using data from the Bipolar Disorder Research Network UK, we employed least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify psychosocial factors associated with bipolar disorder AAO. Twenty-eight factors were entered into our model, with AAO as our outcome measure.

We included 1022 participants with bipolar disorder (μ = 23.0, s.d. ± 9.86) in our model. Six variables predicted an earlier AAO: childhood abuse (β = −0.2855), regular cannabis use in the year before onset (β = −0.2765), death of a close family friend or relative in the 6 months before onset (β = −0.2435), family history of suicide (β = −0.1385), schizotypal personality traits (β = −0.1055) and irritable temperament (β = −0.0685). Five predicted a later AAO: the average number of alcohol units consumed per week in the year before onset (β = 0.1385); birth of a child in the 6 months before onset (β = 0.2755); death of parent, partner, child or sibling in the 6 months before onset (β = 0.3125); seeking work without success for 1 month or more in the 6 months before onset (β = 0.3505) and a major financial crisis in the 6 months before onset (β = 0.4575).

The identified predictor variables have the potential to help stratify high-risk individuals into likely AAO groups, to inform treatment provision and early intervention.

Mood stabilisers are the main treatment for bipolar disorder. However, it is uncertain which drugs have the best outcomes.

To investigate whether rates of suicide, self-harm and psychiatric hospital admission in individuals with bipolar disorder differ between mood stabilisers.

A cohort design was applied to people aged ≥15 years who were diagnosed with bipolar disorder and living in Denmark during 1995–2016. Treatment with lithium, valproate, other mood stabilisers and antipsychotics were compared in between- and within-individual analyses, and adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and previous self-harm.

A total of 33 337 individuals with bipolar disorder were included (266 900 person-years). When compared with individuals not receiving treatment, those receiving lithium had a lower rate of suicide (hazard ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.31–0.51). When comparing treatment and non-treatment periods in the same individuals, lower rates of self-harm were found for lithium (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.61–0.91). Lower rates of psychiatric hospital admission were found for all drug categories compared with non-treatment periods in within-individual analyses (P<0.001). The low rates of self-harm and hospital admission for lithium in within-individual analyses were supported by results of between-individual analyses.

Lithium was associated with lower rates of suicide, self-harm and psychiatric hospital readmission in all analyses. With respect to suicide, lithium was superior to no treatment. Although confounding by indication cannot be excluded, lithium seems to have better outcomes in the treatment of bipolar disorder than other mood stabilisers.

Case-only longitudinal studies are common in psychiatry. Further, it is assumed that psychiatric ratings and questionnaire results of healthy controls stay stable over foreseeable time ranges. For cognitive tests, improvements over time are expected, but data for more than two administrations are scarce.

We comprehensively investigated the longitudinal course for trends over time in cognitive and symptom measurements for severe mental disorders. Assessments included the Trail Making Tests, verbal Digit Span tests, Global Assessment of Functioning, Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology, the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, and the Young Mania Rating Scale, among others.

Using the data of control individuals (n = 326) from the PsyCourse study who had up to four assessments over 18 months, we modelled the course using linear mixed models or logistic regression. The slopes or odds ratios were estimated and adjusted for age and gender. We also assessed the robustness of these results using a longitudinal non-parametric test in a sensitivity analysis.

Small effects were detected for most cognitive tests, indicating a performance improvement over time (P < 0.05). However, for most of the symptom rating scales and questionnaires, no effects were detected, in line with our initial hypothesis.

The slightly but consistently improved performance in the cognitive tests speaks of a test-unspecific positive trend, while psychiatric ratings and questionnaire results remain stable over the observed period. These detectable improvements need to be considered when interpreting longitudinal courses. We therefore recommend recruiting control participants if cognitive tests are administered.

Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment.

To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder.

This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework.

The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data.

Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.