This article is concerned with the problem of determining an unknown source of non-potential, external time-dependent perturbations of an incompressible fluid from large-scale observations on the flow field. A relaxation-based approach is proposed for accomplishing this, which makes use of a nonlinear property of the equations of motions to asymptotically enslave small scales to large scales. In particular, an algorithm is introduced that systematically produces approximations of the flow field on the unobserved scales in order to generate an approximation to the unknown force; the process is then repeated to generate an improved approximation of the unobserved scales, and so on. A mathematical proof of convergence of this algorithm is established in the context of the two-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations with periodic boundary conditions under the assumption that the force belongs to the observational subspace of phase space; at each stage in the algorithm, it is shown that the model error, represented as the difference between the approximating and true force, asymptotically decreases to zero in a geometric fashion provided that sufficiently many scales are observed and certain parameters of the algorithm are appropriately tuned.

In order to clarify and visualize the real state of the structural performances of ships in operation and establish a more optimal, data-driven framework for ship design, construction and operation, an industry-academia joint R&D project on the digital twin for ship structures (DTSS) was conducted in Japan. This paper presents the major achievements of the project. The DTSS aims to grasp the stress responses over the whole ship structure in waves by data assimilation that merges hull monitoring and numerical simulation. Three data assimilation methods, namely, the wave spectrum method, Kalman filter method, and inverse finite element method were used, and their effectiveness was examined through model and full-scale ship measurements. Methods for predicting short-term extreme responses and long-term cumulative fatigue damage were developed for navigation and maintenance support using statistical approaches. In comparison with conventional approaches, response predictions were significantly improved by DTSS using real response data in encountered waves. Utilization scenarios for DTSS in the maritime industry were presented from the viewpoints of navigation support, maintenance support, rule improvement, and product value improvement, together with future research needs for implementation in the maritime industry.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a crucial role in data assimilation (DA) since it impacts both the quality of the reconstruction and near-future forecast. However, traditional UQ approaches are often limited in their ability to handle complex datasets and may have a large computational cost. In this paper, we present a new ensemble-based approach to extend the 4DVarNet framework, an end-to-end deep learning scheme backboned on variational DA used to estimate the mean of the state along a given DA window. We use conditional 4DVarNet simulations compliant with the available observations to estimate the 4DVarNet probability density function. Our approach enables to combine both the efficiency of 4DVarNet in terms of computational cost and validation performance with a fast and memory-saving Monte-Carlo based post-processing of the reconstruction, leading to the so-called En4DVarNet estimation of the state pdf. We demonstrate our approach in a case study involving the sea surface height: 4DVarNet is pretrained on an idealized Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), then used on real-world dataset (OSE). The sampling of independent realizations of the state is made among the catalogue of model-based data used during training. To illustrate our approach, we use a nadir altimeter constellation in January 2017 and show how the uncertainties retrieved by combining 4DVarNet with the statistical properties of the training dataset lead to a relevant information providing in most cases a confidence interval compliant with the Cryosat-2 nadir alongtrack dataset kept for validation.

Data assimilation of flow measurements is an essential tool for extracting information in fluid dynamics problems. Recent works have shown that the physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) enable the reconstruction of unsteady fluid flows, governed by the Navier–Stokes equations, if the network is given enough flow measurements that are appropriately distributed in time and space. In many practical applications, however, experimental measurements involve only time-averaged quantities or their higher order statistics which are governed by the under-determined Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations. In this study, we perform PINN-based reconstruction of time-averaged quantities of an unsteady flow from sparse velocity data. The applied technique leverages the time-averaged velocity data to infer unknown closure quantities (curl of unsteady RANS forcing), as well as to interpolate the fields from sparse measurements. Furthermore, the method’s capabilities are extended further to the assimilation of Reynolds stresses where PINNs successfully interpolate the data to complete the velocity as well as the stresses fields and gain insight into the pressure field of the investigated flow.

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

The growth of machine learning (ML) in environmental science can be divided into a slow phase lasting till the mid-2010s and a fast phase thereafter. The rapid transition was brought about by the emergence of powerful new ML methods, allowing ML to successfully tackle many problems where numerical models and statistical models have been hampered. Deep convolutional neural network models greatly advanced the use of ML on 2D or 3D data. Transfer learning has allowed ML to progress in climate science, where data records are generally short for ML. ML and physics are also merging in new areas, for example: (a) using ML for general circulation model parametrization, (b) adding physics constraints in ML models, and (c) using ML in data assimilation.

We propose an improved adjoint-based method for the reconstruction and prediction of the nonlinear wave field from coarse-resolution measurement data. We adopt the data assimilation framework using an adjoint equation to search for the optimal initial wave field to match the wave field simulation result at later times with the given measurement data. Compared with the conventional approach where the optimised initial surface elevation and velocity potential are independent of each other, our method features an additional constraint to dynamically connect these two control variables based on the dispersion relation of waves. The performance of our new method and the conventional method is assessed with the nonlinear wave data generated from phase-resolved nonlinear wave simulations using the high-order spectral method. We consider a variety of wave steepness and noise levels for the nonlinear irregular waves. It is found that the conventional method tends to overestimate the surface elevation in the high-frequency region and underestimate the velocity potential. In comparison, our new method shows significantly improved performance in the reconstruction and prediction of instantaneous surface elevation, surface velocity potential and high-order wave statistics, including the skewness and kurtosis.

This paper presents a new algorithm for lidar data assimilation relying on a new forward model. Current mapping algorithms suffer from multiple shortcomings, which can be related to the lack of clear forward model. In order to address these issues, we provide a mathematical framework where we show how the use of coarse model parameters results in a new data assimilation problem. Understanding this new problem proves essential to derive sound inference algorithms. We introduce a model parameter specifically tailored for lidar data assimilation, which closely relates to the local mean free path. Using this new model parameter, we derive its associated forward model and we provide the resulting mapping algorithm. We further discuss how our proposed algorithm relates to usual occupancy grid mapping. Finally, we present an example with real lidar measurements.

To improve Antarctic sea-ice simulations and estimations, an ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Southern Ocean (DASSO) was developed based on a regional sea ice–ocean coupled model, which assimilates sea-ice thickness (SIT) together with sea-ice concentration (SIC) derived from satellites. To validate the performance of DASSO, experiments were conducted from 15 April to 14 October 2016. Generally, assimilating SIC and SIT can suppress the overestimation of sea ice in the model-free run. Besides considering uncertainties in the operational atmospheric forcing data, a covariance inflation procedure in data assimilation further improves the simulation of Antarctic sea ice, especially SIT. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating sea-ice observations in reconstructing the state of Antarctic sea ice, but also highlight the necessity of more reasonable error estimation for the background as well as the observation.

The Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA), a two-dimensional variational analysis algorithm, is used to provide hourly analyses of surface sensible weather elements for situational awareness at spatial resolutions of 3 km over Alaska. In this work we focus on the analysis of horizontal visibility in Alaska, which is a region prone to weather related aviation accidents that are in part due to a relatively sparse observation network. In this study we evaluate the impact of assimilating estimates of horizontal visibility derived from a novel network of web cameras in Alaska with the RTMA. Results suggest that the web camera-derived estimates of visibility can capture low visibility conditions and have the potential to improve the RTMA visibility analysis under conditions of low instrument flight rules and instrument flight rules.