We introduce an approach for damage detection in gearboxes based on the analysis of sensor data with the multi-resolution dynamic mode decomposition (mrDMD). The application focus is the condition monitoring of wind turbine gearboxes under varying load conditions, in particular irregular and stochastic wind fluctuations. We analyze data stemming from a simulated vibration response of a simple nonlinear gearbox model in a healthy and damaged scenario and under different wind conditions. With mrDMD applied on time-delay snapshots of the sensor data, we can extract components in these vibration signals that highlight features related to damage and enable its identification. A comparison with Fourier analysis, time synchronous averaging, and empirical mode decomposition shows the advantages of the proposed mrDMD-based data analysis approach for damage detection.

Model order reduction (MOR) can provide low-dimensional numerical models for fast simulation. Unlike intrusive methods, nonintrusive methods are attractive because they can be applied even without access to full order models (FOMs). Since nonintrusive MOR methods strongly rely on snapshots of the FOMs, constructing good snapshot sets becomes crucial. In this work, we propose a novel active-learning-based approach for use in conjunction with nonintrusive MOR methods. It is based on two crucial novelties. First, our approach uses joint space sampling to prepare a data pool of the training data. The training data are selected from the data pool using a greedy strategy supported by an error estimator based on Gaussian process regression. Second, we introduce a case-independent validation strategy based on probably approximately correct learning. While the methods proposed here can be applied to different MOR methods, we test them here with artificial neural networks and operator inference.

The uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy technologies is changing the magnitude, variability, and direction of power flows in electricity networks. To ensure a successful transition to a net zero energy system, it will be necessary for a wide range of stakeholders to understand the impacts of these changing flows on networks. However, there is a gap between those with the data and capabilities to understand electricity networks, such as network operators, and those working on adjacent parts of the energy transition jigsaw, such as electricity suppliers and EV charging infrastructure operators. This paper describes the electric vehicle network analysis tool (EVENT), developed to help make network analysis accessible to a wider range of stakeholders in the energy ecosystem who might not have the bandwidth to curate and integrate disparate datasets and carry out electricity network simulations. EVENT analyses the potential impacts of low-carbon technologies on congestion in electricity networks, helping to inform the design of products and services. To demonstrate EVENT’s potential, we use an extensive smart meter dataset provided by an energy supplier to assess the impacts of electricity smart tariffs on networks. Results suggest both network operators and energy suppliers will have to work much more closely together to ensure that the flexibility of customers to support the energy system can be maximized, while respecting safety and security constraints within networks. EVENT’s modular and open-source approach enables integration of new methods and data, future-proofing the tool for long-term impact.

Data assimilation of flow measurements is an essential tool for extracting information in fluid dynamics problems. Recent works have shown that the physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) enable the reconstruction of unsteady fluid flows, governed by the Navier–Stokes equations, if the network is given enough flow measurements that are appropriately distributed in time and space. In many practical applications, however, experimental measurements involve only time-averaged quantities or their higher order statistics which are governed by the under-determined Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations. In this study, we perform PINN-based reconstruction of time-averaged quantities of an unsteady flow from sparse velocity data. The applied technique leverages the time-averaged velocity data to infer unknown closure quantities (curl of unsteady RANS forcing), as well as to interpolate the fields from sparse measurements. Furthermore, the method’s capabilities are extended further to the assimilation of Reynolds stresses where PINNs successfully interpolate the data to complete the velocity as well as the stresses fields and gain insight into the pressure field of the investigated flow.

Multiphase segmentation of pore-scale features and identification of mineralogy from digital images of materials is critical for many applications in the natural resources sector. However, the materials involved (rocks, catalyst pellets, and synthetic alloys) have complex and unpredictable composition. Algorithms that can be extended for multiphase segmentation of images of these materials are relatively few and very human-intensive. Challenges lie in designing algorithms that are context free, can function with less training data, and can handle the unpredictability of material composition. Semisupervised algorithms have shown success in classification in situations characterized by limited training data; they use unlabeled data in addition to labeled data to produce classification. The segmentation obtained can be more accurate than fully supervised learning approaches. This work proposes using a semisupervised clustering algorithm named Continuous Iterative Guided Spectral Class Rejection (CIGSCR) toward multiphase segmentation of digital scans of materials. CIGSCR harnesses spectral cohesion, splitting the intensity histogram of the input image down into clusters. This splitting provides the foundation for classification strategies that can be implemented as postprocessing steps to get the final segmentation. One classification strategy is presented. Micro-computed tomography scans of rocks are used to present the results. It is demonstrated that CIGSCR successfully enables distinguishing features up to the uniqueness of grayscale values, and extracting features present in full image stacks (3D), including features not presented in the training data. Results including instances of success and limitations are presented. Scalability to data sizes \mathcal{O}\left({10}^9\right) $\mathcal{O}\left({10}^9\right)$ voxels is briefly discussed.

In many complex practical optimization cases, the dominant characteristics of the problem are often not known prior. Therefore, there is a need to develop general solvers as it is not always possible to tailor a specialized approach to each application. The previously developed multilevel selection genetic algorithm (MLSGA) already shows good performance on a range of problems due to its diversity-first approach, which is rare among evolutionary algorithms. To increase the generality of its performance, this paper proposes utilization of multiple distinct evolutionary strategies simultaneously, similarly to algorithm selection, but with coevolutionary mechanisms between the subpopulations. This distinctive approach to coevolution provides less regular communication between subpopulations with competition between collectives rather than individuals. This encourages the collectives to act more independently creating a unique subregional search, leading to the development of coevolutionary MLSGA (cMLSGA). To test this methodology, nine genetic algorithms are selected to generate several variants of cMLSGA, which incorporates these approaches at the individual level. The mechanisms are tested on 100 different functions and benchmarked against the 9 state-of-the-art competitors to evaluate the generality of each approach. The results show that the diversity divergence in the principles of working of the selected coevolutionary approaches is more important than their individual performances. The proposed methodology has the most uniform performance on the divergent problem types, from across the tested state of the art, leading to an algorithm more likely to solve complex problems with limited knowledge about the search space, but is outperformed by more specialized solvers on simpler benchmarking studies.

As the Reynolds number increases, the large-eddy simulation (LES) of complex flows becomes increasingly intractable because near-wall turbulent structures become increasingly small. Wall modeling reduces the computational requirements of LES by enabling the use of coarser cells at the walls. This paper presents a machine-learning methodology to develop data-driven wall-shear-stress models that can directly operate, a posteriori, on the unstructured grid of the simulation. The model architecture is based on graph neural networks. The model is trained on a database which includes fully developed boundary layers, adverse pressure gradients, separated boundary layers, and laminar–turbulent transition. The relevance of the trained model is verified a posteriori for the simulation of a channel flow, a backward-facing step and a linear blade cascade.

The International Maritime Organization along with couple European countries (Paris MoU) has introduced in 1982 the port state control (PSC) inspections of vessels in national ports to evaluate their compliance with safety and security regulations. This study discusses how the PSC data share common characteristics with Big Data fundamental theories, and by interpreting them as Big Data, we could enjoy their governance and transparency as a Big Data challenge to gain value from their use. Thus, from the scope of Big Data, PSC should exhibit volume, velocity, variety, value, and complexity to support in the best possible way both officers ashore and on board to maintain the vessel in the best possible conditions for sailing. For the above purpose, this paper employs Big Data theories broadly used within the academic and business environment on datasets characteristics and how to access the value from Big Data and Analytics. The research concludes that PSC data provide valid information to the shipping industry. However, the lack of PSC data ability to present the complete picture of PSC regimes and ports challenges the maritime community’s attempts for a safer and more sustainable industry.

Development of robust concrete mixes with a lower environmental impact is challenging due to natural variability in constituent materials and a multitude of possible combinations of mix proportions. Making reliable property predictions with machine learning can facilitate performance-based specification of concrete, reducing material inefficiencies and improving the sustainability of concrete construction. In this work, we develop a machine learning algorithm that can utilize intermediate target variables and their associated noise to predict the final target variable. We apply the methodology to specify a concrete mix that has high resistance to carbonation, and another concrete mix that has low environmental impact. Both mixes also fulfill targets on the strength, density, and cost. The specified mixes are experimentally validated against their predictions. Our generic methodology enables the exploitation of noise in machine learning, which has a broad range of applications in structural engineering and beyond.

State-of-the-art machine-learning-based models are a popular choice for modeling and forecasting energy behavior in buildings because given enough data, they are good at finding spatiotemporal patterns and structures even in scenarios where the complexity prohibits analytical descriptions. However, their architecture typically does not hold physical correspondence to mechanistic structures linked with governing physical phenomena. As a result, their ability to successfully generalize for unobserved timesteps depends on the representativeness of the dynamics underlying the observed system in the data, which is difficult to guarantee in real-world engineering problems such as control and energy management in digital twins. In response, we present a framework that combines lumped-parameter models in the form of linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models (SSMs) with unsupervised reduced-order modeling in a subspace-based domain adaptation (SDA) approach, which is a type of transfer-learning (TL) technique. Traditionally, SDA is adopted for exploiting labeled data from one domain to predict in a different but related target domain for which labeled data is limited. We introduced a novel SDA approach where instead of labeled data, we leverage the geometric structure of the LTI SSM governed by well-known heat transfer ordinary differential equations to forecast for unobserved timesteps beyond available measurement data by geometrically aligning the physics-derived and data-derived embedded subspaces closer together. In this initial exploration, we evaluate the physics-based SDA framework on a demonstrative heat conduction scenario by varying the thermophysical properties of the source and target systems to demonstrate the transferability of mechanistic models from physics to observed measurement data.

Improvements in computational and experimental capabilities are rapidly increasing the amount of scientific data that are routinely generated. In applications that are constrained by memory and computational intensity, excessively large datasets may hinder scientific discovery, making data reduction a critical component of data-driven methods. Datasets are growing in two directions: the number of data points and their dimensionality. Whereas dimension reduction typically aims at describing each data sample on lower-dimensional space, the focus here is on reducing the number of data points. A strategy is proposed to select data points such that they uniformly span the phase-space of the data. The algorithm proposed relies on estimating the probability map of the data and using it to construct an acceptance probability. An iterative method is used to accurately estimate the probability of the rare data points when only a small subset of the dataset is used to construct the probability map. Instead of binning the phase-space to estimate the probability map, its functional form is approximated with a normalizing flow. Therefore, the method naturally extends to high-dimensional datasets. The proposed framework is demonstrated as a viable pathway to enable data-efficient machine learning when abundant data are available.

The exploitation of hydrocarbon reservoirs may potentially lead to contamination of soils, shallow water resources, and greenhouse gas emissions. Fluids such as methane or CO2 may in some cases migrate toward the groundwater zone and atmosphere through and along imperfectly sealed hydrocarbon wells. Field tests in hydrocarbon-producing regions are routinely conducted for detecting serious leakage to prevent environmental pollution. The challenge is that testing is costly, time-consuming, and sometimes labor-intensive. In this study, machine learning approaches were applied to predict serious leakage with uncertainty quantification for wells that have not been field tested in Alberta, Canada. An improved imputation technique was developed by Cholesky factorization of the covariance matrix between features, where missing data are imputed via conditioning of available values. The uncertainty in imputed values was quantified and incorporated into the final prediction to improve decision-making. Next, a wide range of predictive algorithms and various performance metrics were considered to achieve the most reliable classifier. However, a highly skewed distribution of field tests toward the negative class (nonserious leakage) forces predictive models to unrealistically underestimate the minority class (serious leakage). To address this issue, a combination of oversampling, undersampling, and ensemble learning was applied. By investigating all the models on never-before-seen data, an optimum classifier with minimal false negative prediction was determined. The developed methodology can be applied to identify the wells with the highest likelihood for serious fluid leakage within producing fields. This information is of key importance for optimizing field test operations to achieve economic and environmental benefits.

The superposition of data sets with internal parametric self-similarity is a longstanding and widespread technique for the analysis of many types of experimental data across the physical sciences. Typically, this superposition is performed manually, or recently through the application of one of a few automated algorithms. However, these methods are often heuristic in nature, are prone to user bias via manual data shifting or parameterization, and lack a native framework for handling uncertainty in both the data and the resulting model of the superposed data. In this work, we develop a data-driven, nonparametric method for superposing experimental data with arbitrary coordinate transformations, which employs Gaussian process regression to learn statistical models that describe the data, and then uses maximum a posteriori estimation to optimally superpose the data sets. This statistical framework is robust to experimental noise and automatically produces uncertainty estimates for the learned coordinate transformations. Moreover, it is distinguished from black-box machine learning in its interpretability—specifically, it produces a model that may itself be interrogated to gain insight into the system under study. We demonstrate these salient features of our method through its application to four representative data sets characterizing the mechanics of soft materials. In every case, our method replicates results obtained using other approaches, but with reduced bias and the addition of uncertainty estimates. This method enables a standardized, statistical treatment of self-similar data across many fields, producing interpretable data-driven models that may inform applications such as materials classification, design, and discovery.

Reliable short-term load forecasting is vital for the planning and operation of electric power systems. Short-term load forecasting is a critical component used in purchasing and generating electric power, dispatching, and load switching, which is essential for balancing supply and demand and mitigating the risk of power shortages. This is becoming even more critical given the transition to carbon-neutral technologies in the energy sector. Specifically, since renewable sources are inherently uncertain, a distributed energy system with renewable generation units is more heavily dependent on accurate load forecasts for demand-response management than traditional energy sectors. Despite extensive literature on forecasting electricity demand, most studies focus on predicting the total demand solely based on the previous-step observations of aggregate demand. With advances in smart-metering technology and the availability of high-resolution consumption data, harnessing fine-resolution smart-meter data in load forecasting has attracted increasing attention. Studies using smart-meter data mainly involve a “bottom-up” approach that develops separate forecast models at sub-aggregate levels and aggregates the forecasts to estimate the total demand. While this approach is conducive to incorporating fine-resolution data for load forecasting, it has several shortcomings that can result in sub-optimal forecasts. However, these shortcomings are hardly acknowledged in the load forecasting literature. This work demonstrates how limitations imposed by such a bottom-up load forecasting approach can lead to misleading results, which could hamper efficient load management within a carbon-neutral grid.

Maritime engineering relies on model forecasts for many different processes, including meteorological and oceanographic forcings, structural responses, and energy demands. Understanding the performance and evaluation of such forecasting models is crucial in instilling reliability in maritime operations. Evaluation metrics that assess the point accuracy of the forecast (such as root-mean-squared error) are commonplace, but with the increased uptake of probabilistic forecasting methods such evaluation metrics may not consider the full forecasting distribution. The statistical theory of proper scoring rules provides a framework in which to score and compare competing probabilistic forecasts, but it is seldom appealed to in applications. This translational paper presents the underlying theory and principles of proper scoring rules, develops a simple panel of rules that may be used to robustly evaluate the performance of competing probabilistic forecasts, and demonstrates this with an application to forecasting surface winds at an asset on Australia’s North–West Shelf. Where appropriate, we relate the statistical theory to common requirements by maritime engineering industry. The case study is from a body of work that was undertaken to quantify the value resulting from an operational forecasting product and is a clear demonstration of the downstream impacts that statistical and data science methods can have in maritime engineering operations.

While finite element (FE) modeling is widely used for ultimate strength assessments of structural systems, incorporating complex distortions and imperfections into FE models remains a challenge. Conventional methods typically rely on assumptions about the periodicity of distortions through spectral or modal methods. However, these approaches are not viable under the many realistic scenarios where these assumptions are invalid. Research efforts have consistently demonstrated the ability of point cloud data, generated through laser scanning or photogrammetry-based methods, to accurately capture structural deformations at the millimeter scale. This enables the updating of numerical models to capture the exact structural configuration and initial imperfections without the need for unrealistic assumptions. This research article investigates the use of point cloud data for updating the initial distortions in a FE model of a stiffened ship deck panel, for the purposes of ultimate strength estimation. The presented approach has the additional benefit of being able to explicitly account for measurement uncertainty in the analysis. Calculations using the updated FE models are compared against ground truth test data as well as FE models updated using standard spectral methods. The results demonstrate strength estimation that is comparable to existing approaches, with the additional advantages of uncertainty quantification and applicability to a wider range of application scenarios.

Data-informed predictive maintenance planning largely relies on stochastic deterioration models. Monitoring information can be utilized to update sequentially the knowledge on model parameters. In this context, on-line (recursive) Bayesian filtering algorithms typically fail to properly quantify the full posterior uncertainty of time-invariant model parameters. Off-line (batch) algorithms are—in principle—better suited for the uncertainty quantification task, yet they are computationally prohibitive in sequential settings. In this work, we adapt and investigate selected Bayesian filters for parameter estimation: an on-line particle filter, an on-line iterated batch importance sampling filter, which performs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) move steps, and an off-line MCMC-based sequential Monte Carlo filter. A Gaussian mixture model approximates the posterior distribution within the resampling process in all three filters. Two numerical examples provide the basis for a comparative assessment. The first example considers a low-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian probabilistic fatigue crack growth model that is updated with sequential monitoring measurements. The second high-dimensional, linear, Gaussian example employs a random field to model corrosion deterioration across a beam, which is updated with sequential sensor measurements. The numerical investigations provide insights into the performance of off-line and on-line filters in terms of the accuracy of posterior estimates and the computational cost, when applied to problems of different nature, increasing dimensionality and varying sensor information amount. Importantly, they show that a tailored implementation of the on-line particle filter proves competitive with the computationally demanding MCMC-based filters. Suggestions on the choice of the appropriate method in function of problem characteristics are provided.

An approach for the identification of discontinuous and nonsmooth nonlinear forces, as those generated by frictional contacts, in mechanical systems that can be approximated by a single-degree-of-freedom model is presented. To handle the sharp variations and multiple motion regimes introduced by these nonlinearities in the dynamic response, the partially known physics-based model and noisy measurements of the system’s response to a known input force are combined within a switching Gaussian process latent force model (GPLFM). In this grey-box framework, multiple Gaussian processes are used to model the unknown nonlinear force across different motion regimes and a resetting model enables the generation of discontinuities. The states of the system, nonlinear force, and regime transitions are inferred by using filtering and smoothing techniques for switching linear dynamical systems. The proposed switching GPLFM is applied to a simulated dry friction oscillator and an experimental setup consisting of a single-storey frame with a brass-to-steel contact. Excellent results are obtained in terms of the identified nonlinear and discontinuous friction force for varying: (i) normal load amplitudes in the contact; (ii) measurement noise levels, and (iii) number of samples in the datasets. Moreover, the identified states, friction force, and sequence of motion regimes are used for evaluating: (1) uncertain system parameters; (2) the friction force–velocity relationship, and (3) the static friction force. The correct identification of the discontinuous nonlinear force and the quantification of any remaining uncertainty in its prediction enable the implementation of an accurate forward model able to predict the system’s response to different input forces.

We present a novel methodology for optimizing fiber optic network performance by determining the ideal values for attenuation, nonlinearity, and dispersion parameters in terms of achieved signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) gain from digital backpropagation (DBP). Our approach uses Gaussian process regression, a probabilistic machine learning technique, to create a computationally efficient model for mapping these parameters to the resulting SNR after applying DBP. We then use simplicial homology global optimization to find the parameter values that yield maximum SNR for the Gaussian process model within a set of a priori bounds. This approach optimizes the parameters in terms of the DBP gain at the receiver. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through simulation and experimental testing, achieving optimal estimates of the dispersion, nonlinearity, and attenuation parameters. Our approach also highlights the limitations of traditional one-at-a-time grid search methods and emphasizes the interpretability of the technique. This methodology has broad applications in engineering and can be used to optimize performance in various systems beyond optical networks.

This article presents a system architecture and a set of interfaces that can build scalable information systems capable of large city modeling based on dynamic geospatial knowledge graphs to avoid pitfalls of Web 2.0 applications while blending artificial and human intelligence during the knowledge enhancement processes. We designed and developed a GeoSpatial Processor, an SQL2SPARQL Transformer, and a geospatial tiles ordering tasks and integrated them into a City Export Agent to visualize and interact with city models on an augmented 3D web client. We designed a Thematic Surface Discovery Agent to automatically upgrade the model’s level of detail to interact with thematic parts of city objects by other agents. We developed a City Information Agent to help retrieve contextual information, provide data concerning city regulations, and work with a City Energy Analyst Agent that automatically estimates the energy demands for city model members. We designed a Distance Agent to track the interactions with the model members on the web, calculate distances between objects of interest, and add new knowledge to the Cities Knowledge Graph. The logical foundations and CityGML-based conceptual schema used to describe cities in terms of the OntoCityGML ontology, together with the system of intelligent autonomous agents based on the J-Park Simulator Agent Framework, make such systems capable of assessing and maintaining ground truths with certainty. This new era of GeoWeb 2.5 systems lowers the risk of deliberate misinformation within geography web systems used for modeling critical infrastructures.