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Using foresight methods such as scenarios, possible futures can be described and anticipated. Needs and requirements as well as product properties can be derived from that, which is necessary to plan successful products for future customers. Changes that occur in the future development can be identified with monitoring and the expected future can be adjusted. A consistent understanding of the use of monitoring for the product engineering process does not exist and is developed in this paper. Thereby, monitoring is considered in the context of validation and located in iPeM.
As societies become more concerned with their impacts on future generations, the question of how to translate that concern into greater consideration in contemporary decision-making is coming to the fore. Despite growing societal acceptance of the ethics of obligations to the future – as reflected in record-high number of future-sensitive constitutions and international treaties – present generations’ promises to future generations remain unfulfilled. This article explains why and offers an alternative approach to future-proofing. After providing a systematic account of the multiple efforts at aligning the actions of decision-makers with the interests of future generations, it argues that achieving the inclusion of future generations’ interests in contemporary policymaking requires more than their legal codification and the establishment of new and typically scattered institutions, mechanisms and procedures. It rather calls for a more holistic, future-orientated and proactive approach by all public authorities. These must increasingly be expected to create the conditions not only for policymakers to consider the temporal dimension of their decisions, but also for all stakeholders – including new dedicated institutions – to hold present people accountable to currently non-existent future generations. To do so beyond the environment and climate space is a matter of urgency. This is the spirit animating this Special Issue devoted to long-term risks and future generations: to nurture a more imaginative theorisation and operationalisation of the recognition of future generations’ interests in contemporary policymaking beyond today’s institutional and conceptual models.
Edited by
Alexandre Caron, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), France,Daniel Cornélis, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD) and Foundation François Sommer, France,Philippe Chardonnet, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) SSC Antelope Specialist Group,Herbert H. T. Prins, Wageningen Universiteit, The Netherlands
In this chapter we envision the possible futures of the African buffalo populations in Africa by reflecting on the regional and international factors and their relationships that could positively or negatively impact the healthiness of the buffalo species in the next 30 years. Using the expertise of the authors of this book, we drafted and validated a list of factors of change that could impact the futures of African buffalo populations on the continent and use a set of prospective methods, i.e. structural analysis, critical uncertainty matrix and morphological analysis to develop seven synopses which provided caricatural African contexts within which the consequences for African buffalo populations could be imagined. In 2050, the futures of the African buffalo will vary according to each country specific social, technical, economic, environmental, political and value contexts. In a context of climate change that will impact increasingly the environmental contexts in Africa, good futures for buffalo were often associated with political stability and good governance. The proportion of African living in cities will also be important. The ratio of urban versus rural African will not only determine the intensity of the agricultural pressure on land but also the African worldviews towards nature and its conservation. The influence of non-African states will also be determinant, especially in extractive industries and their request for land. A pivotal factor is the conservation models that will prevail in 2050: to what extent they are still influenced and constrained by part of the Western opinion; to what extent they are funded by them; and to what extent African worldviews push for the design of new conservation models based on different relationship between people and nature. Probably, landscapes associating land-sparing (e.g. national parks) and land-sharing management options, based on the sustainable use of natural resources will provide the best futures for buffalo to thrive on the continent.
In order to humanize forecasting, communities have been proposed to activate and enlarge a collective ability of foresight. To better understand how communities relate to collective foresight abilities, this article untangles its critical modes, roles and social media involved. Based on a fine-grained analysis of 10 community practices, we uncovered the abilities of capturing, conceiving and designing foresights enacted in the distinct modes of creative, user and strategic communities. Discoveries included the novel abilities of conceiving foresights, a new groundbreaker role for strategic designers and specific activities of social media listening with regard to future interests. Grounded on the prime findings, we propose a framework with propositions that shape further theory development on community abilities of designing foresights. Further research directions are outlined.
To analyze the consequences of the Natech scenario of H2S toxic gas release from an oil refinery near Tehran and its effects on surrounding residential areas following an earthquake.
Methods:
This research was an applied study. The Natech risk map and the end-point distance of gas release were determined using the Rapid-n software and the Worst-Case Scenario of RMP, respectively.
Results:
Regarding the high seismic vulnerability of the structures affected by the Natech risk, all residents of this area were simultaneously affected by earthquake and the toxic gas inhalation. In comparison to earthquake, response capacities were poor for Natech events, due to insufficient resources, limited accessibility, lack of planning, and unsafe evacuation places in exposed regions. Unlike earthquake, few studies have been conducted on Natech risk assessment and related consequences in Iran. Our study not only covered this gap but also revealed some dimensions of consequences of human, structural, and response capacities.
Conclusions:
It is recommended to have plans for implementing short-term such as identifying vulnerable industries and areas, public awareness and long-term such as land use planning measures to reduce Natech risk and resilience improvement.
The eureka moment is a myth. It is an altogether naïve and fanciful account of human progress. Innovations emerge from a much less mysterious combination of historical, circumstantial, and accidental influences. This book explores the origin and evolution of several important behavioral innovations including the high five, the Heimlich maneuver, the butterfly stroke, the moonwalk, and the Iowa caucus. Such creations' striking suitability to the situation and the moment appear ingeniously designed with foresight. However, more often than not, they actually arise 'as if by design.' Based on investigations into the histories of a wide range of innovations, Edward A. Wasserman reveals the nature of behavioral creativity. What surfaces is a fascinating web of causation involving three main factors: context, consequence, and coincidence. Focusing on the process rather than the product of innovation elevates behavior to the very center of the creative human endeavor.
Charting robust pathways towards more sustainable futures that ‘leave no one behind’ requires that diverse communities engage in collective foresight and intelligence exercises to better understand global systemic challenges, anticipate the emerging risks and opportunities that disruptions present, and share perspectives on how to respond and inform decision-making. We report on the recent use of an international rapid foresight survey to assess expected societal trends over the next 3 years following the COVID-19 crisis. The results illustrate the power of collective foresight approaches to provide timely, nuanced insights for decision-making across sectors and scales, particularly in times of uncertainty.
Technical summary
We present the findings of a rapid foresight survey launched in spring 2020 to draw on the collective intelligence of the global community on where the world is headed post-COVID-19. Respondents were asked to (i) assess five key societal trends in the coming 3 years, (ii) provide news headlines they both expect and hope to see, and (iii) assess the role of digital technologies during crises. Analysis of over 2000 responses from more than 90 countries revealed important regional differences in expected societal trends related to sustainability. More respondents in the Global South expected shifts towards less inequality while more respondents in the Global North expected shifts towards a smaller ecological footprint. Qualitative analysis of proposed news headlines revealed four broad themes of focus (environment, equity, health, and economy), and yielded insights into perspectives on critical drivers of change. Finally, the survey report found that the vast majority of respondents were not opposed to digital surveillance in crises. In presenting these results, we explore the value of collective foresight and intelligence exercises in providing pluralistic inputs to decision-making and in complementing more prevalent methods of forecasting.
Social media summary
Collective foresight exercises with diverse communities can help chart robust pathways to more sustainable futures.
Mobile containers are a keystone human innovation. Ethnographic data indicate that all human groups use containers such as bags, quivers and baskets, ensuring that individuals have important resources at the ready and are prepared for opportunities and threats before they materialize. Although there is speculation surrounding the invention of carrying devices, the current hard archaeological evidence only reaches back some 100,000 years. The dearth of ancient evidence may reflect not only taphonomic processes, but also a lack of attention to these devices. To begin investigating the origins of carrying devices we focus on exploring the basic cognitive processes involved in mobile container use and report an initial study on young children's understanding and deployment of such devices. We gave 3- to 7-year-old children (N = 106) the opportunity to spontaneously identify and use a basket to increase their own carrying capacity and thereby obtain more resources in the future. Performance improved linearly with age, as did the likelihood of recognizing that adults use mobile carrying devices to increase carrying capacity. We argue that the evolutionary and developmental origins of mobile containers reflect foundational cognitive processes that enable humans to think about their own limits and compensate for them.
As time-to-market is getting shorter, customer needs have to be identified as early as possible in product development. Correctly applied, corporate foresight can give a glimpse into the future to anticipate such needs and thus gain a competitive advantage. A support tool to choose the appropriate method of foresight is not available yet. Thus, a literature study on foresight methods in industry is performed and a novel decision support tool is proposed which avoids high entrepreneurial risks. Based on the findings, potentials for future work are identified for different types of methods.
This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.
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