The Caribbean has seen a dramatic shift in the obesity and chronic disease prevalence over the past decades, suggesting a nutrition transition. Simultaneously, Martinique has faced a demographic transition marked by significant population ageing. We aimed to differentiate the contribution of changes in health status and dietary intakes due to shifts in demographic and socio-economic characteristics (DSEC) from that due to unobserved factors.

Two cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2003 (n 743) and 2013 (n 573) on representative samples were used. Dietary intakes were estimated by 24-h recalls. The contribution of changes in health status and dietary intakes due to shifts in observed DSEC was differentiated from that due to unobserved factors over a 10-year interval, using Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition models.

Martinique, French region in the Caribbean.

Martinican adults (≥16 years).

Over the study period, health status deteriorated, partly owing to shifts in DSEC, explaining 62 % of the change in the prevalence of hypertension (+13 percentage points (pp)) and 48 % of waist circumference change (+3 cm). Diet quality decreased (mean adequacy ratio –2pp and mean excess ratio + 2 pp) and energy supplied by ultra-processed food increased (+4 pp). Shifts in DSEC marginally explained some changes in dietary intakes (e.g. increased diet quality), while the changes that remained unexplained were of opposite sign, with decreased diet quality, lower fruits, tubers and fish intakes and higher energy provided by ultra-processed foods.

Explained dietary changes were of opposite sign to nutrition transition conceptual framework, probably because unobserved drivers are in play, such as food price trends or supermarkets spread.