Following the introduction of the one-child policy in China, the capital-labor ratio of China increased relative to that of India, while FDI/GDP inflows to China versus India simultaneously declined. These observations are explained in the context of a simple neoclassical overlapping generations paradigm. The adjustment mechanism works as follows: the reduction in the growth rate of the (urban) labor force due to the one-child policy increases the capital per worker inherited from the previous generation. The resulting increase in China’s domestic capital-labor ratio thus "crowds out" the need for foreign direct investment (FDI) in China relative to India. Our paper is a contribution to the nascent literature exploring demographic transitions and their effects on FDI flows.

In response to the recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU-wide macroeconomic policy has launched an unprecedented coordinated fiscal expansion across the EU (Next Generation EU or NGEU), financed by issuing common debt. Given NGEU’s nature, it is essential to take fiscal spillovers into consideration when assessing the overall macroeconomic effects of this fiscal expansion. We quantify the effects of the additional public investment for all Member States in a rich macro-model with a trade structure. Our model suggests that, on average, GDP effects are around one-third larger when explicitly accounting for the spillover effects from individual-country measures. For small open economies with smaller NGEU allocations, spillover effects account for the bulk of the GDP impact. We also quantify key transmission channels.

This paper explores the growth effects of both consumption- and wealth-induced social comparisons in a unified small open endogenous growth model. We analytically show that in an open economy not only do these two distinct status-seeking motives have very different growth effects, but these growth effects are also quite different from the conventional wisdom based on a closed economy. Status-seeking behavior need not favor economic growth. The asset portfolios of households and the imperfection of the international asset market both play an important role and jointly govern the growth effects of social status seeking. We also perform a quantitative experiment, showing that our analytical findings are robust and empirically plausible. Our analysis provides novel implications for social comparisons and new insights into the literature.

We analyze the implications of openness and growth for determinacy and learnability of rational expectations equilibria in a two-country New Keynesian model with alternative monetary policy rules. Under the contemporaneous data rule, the conditions for determinacy and learnability become more stringent as a result of openness but less stringent as a result of growth, so that growth weakens the effect of openness. Under the expectations-based rule, the conditions for determinacy and learnability also become more stringent as a result of openness, whereas as a result of trend growth the conditions for determinacy also become more stringent (thus reinforcing the effect of openness) but those for learnability become less stringent (thus weakening the effect of openness). As in related studies, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is key to our result, but within a framework that is consistent with long-run labor supply and balanced growth facts.

Projected demographic changes in industrialized and developing countries vary in extent and timing but will reduce the share of the population in working age everywhere. Conventional wisdom suggests that this will increase capital intensity with falling rates of return to capital and increasing wages. This decreases welfare for middle aged asset rich households. This paper takes the perspective of the three demographically oldest European nations – France, Germany and Italy – to address three important adjustment channels to dampen these detrimental effects of aging in these countries: investing abroad, endogenous human capital formation, and increasing the retirement age. Our quantitative finding is that endogenous human capital formation in combination with an increase in the retirement age has strong implications for economic aggregates and welfare, in particular in the open economy. These adjustments reduce the maximum welfare losses of demographic change for households alive in 2010 by about 2.2 percentage points in terms of consumption equivalent variation.

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Galí and Monacelli in 2005. We find that the open economy framework brings about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters related to the open economy structure affects the values of bifurcation parameters and changes the location of bifurcation boundaries. As a result, the stratification of the confidence region, as previously seen in closed-economy New Keynesian models, remains an important research and policy risk to be considered in the context of the open-economy New Keynesian functional structures. In fact, econometrics and optimal policy design become more complex within an open economy. Dynamical inferences need to be qualified by the risk of bifurcation boundaries crossing the confidence regions. Policy design needs to take into consideration that a change in monetary policy can produce an unanticipated bifurcation, without adequate prior econometrics research.

There is common agreement on price inflation stabilization being one of the objectives of monetary policy. But, in an open economy, two alternative measures of inflation coexist: domestic inflation and consumer price inflation. Which of the two should be the target variable? Most of the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) literature suggests that the monetary authority should stabilize domestic inflation. This is in sharp contrast with the practice of many inflation-targeting central banks that are using consumer price index (CPI) inflation as target variable. The paper shows that the standard result in the NOEM literature is derived under the simplifying assumption of flexible wages. The inclusion of sticky wages in an otherwise standard small open economy model is shown to rationalize CPI inflation targeting. This conclusion is robust to changes in key parameters, including the trade elasticity.

In this paper, we compare the empirical properties of closed- and open-economy DSGE models estimated on Euro area data. The comparison is made along several dimensions; we examine the models in terms of their marginal likelihoods, forecasting performance, variance decompositions, and their transmission mechanisms of monetary policy.

Building on the theoretical prediction that income tax progressivity increases the speed of convergence in neoclassical, open-economy growth models, this paper asks whether tax progressivity is a potential source of differences across regions in convergence rates. In a sample of U.S. data, over the period 1920–1990, regional convergence and tax progressivity are found to be positively correlated, which supports the theoretical results. Moreover, some data on six OECD countries also accord with such a positive relationship. Overall, the model is successful in predicting the large range of available convergence estimates when the tax rate is elastic enough with respect to the tax base.

We examine optimal policy in an open-economy model with uncertainty and learning, where monetary policy actions affect the economy through the real exchange rate channel. Our results show that the degree of caution or activism in optimal policy depends on whether central banks are in coordinated or uncoordinated equilibrium. If central banks coordinate their policy actions then activism is optimal. In contrast, if there is no coordination, caution prevails. In the latter case caution is optimal because it helps central banks to avoid exposing themselves to manipulative actions by other central banks.

The paper studies the effects of an expansionary fiscal policy in a general equilibrium model of a small open economy. Households are assumed to possess habit-forming, endogenous rates of time preference. In response to fiscal shocks, the model generates cyclical endogenous persistence and procyclical time paths for consumption, employment, and investment, as well as a countercyclical path for the current account. Furthermore, fiscal shocks are shown to have positive long-run effects on output and negative long-run effects on consumption.