Objectives: Japanese authorities have announced a plan to introduce a health technology assessment (HTA) system in 2016. This study assessed the potential impact of such a policy on the price of the antivirologic drug simeprevir.
Methods: Taking the antivirologic drug simeprevir as an example, we compared the current Japanese price with hypothetical prices that might result if a U.K. (cost-utility) or German (efficiency frontier) style HTA assessment was in place.
Results: The simeprevir unit price under the current Japanese pricing scheme is 13,122 Japanese yen (equivalent to 109.35 U.S. dollars as of April 2015). Depending on the selection of comparators and the pricing method, and assuming that HTA will be used as a basis for price setting, the estimated prices of simeprevir vary up to four times higher than under the current Japanese pricing scheme.
Conclusions: Although the analysis is based on only one drug, it cannot be taken for granted that a new HTA system would reduce public healthcare expenditure in Japan.
