Understanding trends in grain consumption is essential to tackle the low consumption of healthful grain foods. This study aimed to evaluate trends and determinants of grain foods meeting the ≤10:1 carbohydrate:fibre ratio (≤10:1 ratio) in Brazil and to estimate this intake for the next years.

Three editions of the cross-sectional, population-based study Health Survey of São Paulo (2003, 2008 and 2015).

Urban area of São Paulo, Brazil.

The sample included 5801 participants aged 12 years or more.

A growing trend in the intake of these foods (0·9 percentage of energy (%E) in 2003 to 1·5 %E in 2015) was observed. Also, the proportion of the population consuming at least one grain food meeting the ≤10:1 ratio increased from 8·7 % in 2003 to 15·8 % in 2015, and 20·3 % of the population would be consuming some kind of healthful grain food by 2030. Sociodemographic factors associated with the consumption of grain foods meeting the ≤10:1 ratio changed according to study edition, but overall, older individuals (+79 %), females (+28 %), those with higher education (+138 %) and higher family income (+135 %) were more likely to consume grain foods meeting the ratio, whereas participants who self-reported black, brown or indigenous ethnicity were less likely to consume these foods (–30 %).

There was a growing trend to consume grain foods meeting the ≤10:1 ratio from 2003 to 2015, but this consumption continues to be far from recommended levels. Intersectoral changes are urgently needed in order to increase the intake of healthful grain foods.