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We have previously argued thatbehavioral scientists have been testing and advocating individualistic (i-frame) solutions to policy problems that have systemic (s-frame) causes and require systemic solutions. Here, we consider the implications of adopting an s-frame approach for research. We argue that an s-frame approach will involve addressing different types of questions, which will, in turn, require a different toolbox of research methods.
Traditional approaches for evaluating the impact of scientific research – mainly scholarship (i.e., publications, presentations) and grant funding – fail to capture the full extent of contributions that come from larger scientific initiatives. The Translational Science Benefits Model (TSBM) was developed to support more comprehensive evaluations of scientific endeavors, especially research designed to translate scientific discoveries into innovations in clinical or public health practice and policy-level changes. Here, we present the domains of the TSBM, including how it was expanded by researchers within the Implementation Science Centers in Cancer Control (ISC3) program supported by the National Cancer Institute. Next, we describe five studies supported by the Penn ISC3, each focused on testing implementation strategies informed by behavioral economics to reduce key practice gaps in the context of cancer care and identify how each study yields broader impacts consistent with TSBM domains. These indicators include Capacity Building, Methods Development (within the Implementation Field) and Rapid Cycle Approaches, implementing Software Technologies, and improving Health Care Delivery and Health Care Accessibility. The examples highlighted here can help guide other similar scientific initiatives to conceive and measure broader scientific impact to fully articulate the translation and effects of their work at the population level.
This chapter provides an overview of the purpose of the book, namely to help the user of public opinion data develop a systematic analytical approach for understanding, predicting, and engaging public opinion. This includes helping the reader understand how public opinion can be employed as a decision-making input, meaning a factor, or variable, to assess, predict, or influence an outcome. The chapter outlines how information from different disciplines, including cognitive psychology, behavioral economics, and political science, come together to inform the pollster’s work.
Predictions often falter because of human error. Most misses have much more to do with our own human shortcomings than with the technical sophistication of the method at hand. In our experience, forecasting errors occur when we discard or misinterpret evidence right in front of us. The clues are there, but we are blinded by our own filters. This is why it is essential to tackle such biases and discuss corresponding solutions. In this chapter, we’ll look at studies on the forecasting prowess of experts. Then, we’ll focus on cognitive biases that skew predictions. Finally, we’ll present an applied approach to minimize such biases.
Effectuation has become the basis for educating entrepreneurs and managers. Derived from cognitive and behavioral economic studies of expert entrepreneurs, effectuation shows how to cocreate value in highly uncertain situations. The framework of effectuation consists in techniques that minimize the use of predictive information and ways to turn control itself into strategy. In doing so, the effectual process opens up radically new ways to rethink a variety of fundamental concepts in all the social sciences. This ranges from risk and return to markets and governments in economics; attitudes toward ends and means in psychology; opportunism and altruism in social psychology; and even success and failure in strategic management. Effectuation theory inverts several older approaches in what Herbert Simon referred to as the 'sciences of the artificial'. These inversions suggest an entrepreneurial method based on non-predictive control that complements the predictive control techniques of the scientific method.
Recent meta-analyses suggest that certain drugs act as cognitive enhancers and can increase attentional investment and performance even for healthy adults. The current review examines the potential of behavioral economics enhancers (BEEs) for similarly improving cognitive performance and judgments. Traditionally, behavioral economics theory has adopted a skeptical approach regarding the notion of whether individuals can overcome judgment biases through variables that increase cognitive effort. We focus mostly on the effects of two BEEs: incentivization and losses. Summarizing results from different meta-analyses, we find a small but robust positive effect size for BEEs, with comparable effect sizes to those found in studies of pharmacological cognitive enhancers.
Recent work has argued for a Hayekian behavioural economics, which combines Austrian economics with behavioural economics as developed by Kahneman, Thaler, Sunstein, and others. We suggest that this hybrid is misguided because it relies on individual cognitivism. This view of cognition is incompatible with the Hayekian view of cognition which treats rationality as an emergent phenomenon of social interaction in an institutional environment. This Hayekian view, which we call epistemic institutionalism, is compatible with an alternative prominent perspective in psychology, that of the extended mind, sometimes known as 4E cognition. We demonstrate how the Hayekian perspective on individualism, the price system, and the evolution of rules can be connected to the extended mind programme, through concepts such as the coupling of the individual and their environment, cognitive off-loading, and affordances. We suggest that this alternative combination of Austrian economics and psychology provides a more fruitful way forward, especially because it foregrounds the processes of learning, error-correction, and institutional orders, rather than choice, bias, and individual rationality. To explain why Austrian economists have been receptive to behavioural economics, we distinguish epistemic institutionalism from the (radical) subjectivist approach, which shares key assumptions of individual cognitivism.
Chapter 3 links context-dependent choice with what has recently been called in economics the “reconciliation problem” between positive and normative economics, and argues that efforts to solve that problem have led to a number of different strategies for reconstructing economics’ individual conception. It first reviews the mainstream’s “inner rational agent” attempt to preserve Homo economicus and then contrasts two broad strategies for reconstructing economics’ individual conception based on opposing views of individual autonomy: an “internalist” view that makes it depend on private subjectivity, and an “externalist” view that makes it depend on economic and social institutions. The chapter reviews four, recent strategies in the literature which take the “externalist” view and move toward a socially embedded individual conception. All four make ability to adjust part of what people are, but all four remain attached to the idea that individuals are only made up of preferences. Thus, I argue they fail to explain how people are autonomous individuals able to choose and act freely.
In Chapter 1, we set out the big question that this book seeks to answer: How does economics help us understand the various relationships between human beings and dogs? We label our effort to answer this big question and the many related economic questions and issues as “dogonomics.” To frame the question, we introduce two somewhat differing economic perspectives: neoclassical economics, which assumes individual rationality, and behavioral economics, which argues that people act irrationally in predictable ways. We make the case that, although many dogs are bought and sold in markets, they are unlike other commodities and most other animals. Dog exceptionalism is real. Indeed, they often have a dual nature as both commodity and family member.
Chapter 2 shows the falseness of two ideas that underlie the central elements of privacy law: that people make fully rational privacy choices and that they don’t care about their privacy. These notions create a dissonance between law and reality, which prevents laws from providing meaningful privacy protections. Contrary to rationality, context has an outsized impact on our privacy decisions and we can’t understand what risks are involved in our privacy “choices,” particularly with AI inferences. The notion that we’re apathetic is prevalent in popular discourse about how much people share online and the academic literature about “the privacy paradox.” Dismantling the myth of apathy shows there’s no privacy paradox. People simply face uncertainty and unknowable risks. People make privacy choices in a context of anti-privacy design, such as dark patterns. In this process, we’re manipulated by corporations, who are more aware of our biases than regulators are.
Chapter 4 delves into two efforts to reinforce consent: opt-in and informed choice. It illustrates why, in the information economy, they also fail. Power asymmetries enable systemic manipulation in the design of digital products and services. Manipulation by design thwarts improved consent provisions, interfering with people’s decision-making. People’s choices regarding their privacy are determined by the designs of the systems with which they interact. European and American attempts to regulate manipulation by changing tracking from ‘opt-out’ to ‘opt-in’ and reinforcing information crash on the illusion of consent. Contract law doctrines that aim to reduce manipulation are unsuitable because they assume mutually beneficial agreements, and privacy policies are neither. Best efforts to strengthen meaningful consent and choice, even where policies are specifically intended to protect users, ultimately are insufficient because of the environment in which privacy “decisions” take place.
Delay discounting—the extent to which individuals show a preference for smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards—has been proposed as a transdiagnostic neurocognitive process across mental health conditions, but its examination in relation to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is comparatively recent. To assess the aggregated evidence for elevated delay discounting in relation to posttraumatic stress, we conducted a meta-analysis on existing empirical literature. Bibliographic searches identified 209 candidate articles, of which 13 articles with 14 independent effect sizes were eligible for meta-analysis, reflecting a combined sample size of N = 6897. Individual study designs included case-control (e.g. examination of differences in delay discounting between individuals with and without PTSD) and continuous association studies (e.g. relationship between posttraumatic stress symptom severity and delay discounting). In a combined analysis of all studies, the overall relationship was a small but statistically significant positive association between posttraumatic stress and delay discounting (r = .135, p < .0001). The same relationship was statistically significant for continuous association studies (r = .092, p = .027) and case-control designs (r = .179, p < .001). Evidence of publication bias was minimal. The included studies were limited in that many did not concurrently incorporate other psychiatric conditions in the analyses, leaving the specificity of the relationship to posttraumatic stress less clear. Nonetheless, these findings are broadly consistent with previous meta-analyses of delayed reward discounting in relation to other mental health conditions and provide further evidence for the transdiagnostic utility of this construct.
Behavioral economics has become a dominant set of theories in explaining economic behavior, yet such behavior remains under the limited purview of psychological, cognitive, or neural approaches. This article draws on and extends Viviana Zelizer's social meaning of money framework in conjunction with new work in ‘relational accounting’ to suggest a sociological counterpoint, focusing in particular on the social and symbolic meaning attached to individual 401(k) retirement accounts. Following a market downturn, neoclassical and behavioral economics predict various types of behavioral responses, in particular loss aversion - where investors seek to increase risk-taking rather than locking in a sure loss (a loss is more painful to bear than an equivalent gain). A sociological theory that understands the shared meaning of retirement saving would predict something different, a behavior I call durable conservatism. In this article, I show how this concept better explains observed risk behavior in Americans’ 401(k) accounts following the 2002 and 2008 bear markets in stocks, and how that response differed from the behavior documented in non-retirement brokerage accounts.
As economists took up the task of measuring the demand for environmental services not traded in markets, some chose to substituted survey-based methods known as contingent valuation (CV). Doing so, they could not help but find themselves in the uncomfortable position of self-evidently constructing their observations rather than merely observing them. Apparent anomalies between the constructs and the predictions for economic man led to a fierce debate over the merits of contingent valuation--a debate that hinged on the question of whether economic theory was being applied or tested.
Why are take up rates incomplete or low when the relevant opportunities are unambiguously advantageous to people who are eligible for them? How can public officials promote higher take up of opportunities? All over the world, these are challenges of the first order. There are three primary barriers to take up: learning costs, compliance costs, and psychological costs. These costs lower the net expected benefit of opportunities, and reduce participation in otherwise advantageous programs. Fully rational agents would consider these costs in their take up decisions, and in light of behavioral biases, such costs loom especially large and may seem prohibitive. Experimental and other evidence suggest methods for reducing the barriers to take up and the effects of behavioral biases. Use of such methods has the potential to significantly increase access to a wide range of opportunities that would increase individual well-being and social welfare.
This chapter offers an introductory discussion of the state of macroeconomics. It presents a brief outline of the historical background to traditional Keynesian macroeconomics and its replacement by the current orthodoxy based on microeconomic foundations and intertemporal optimization, with DSGE models at the center. This scholastically motivated paradigm has been a costly detour. A promising alternative structuralist and behavioral approach can draw on behavioral economics as well as rich traditions that have been marginalized within the profession.
This chapter explains why the purchase funnel – sometimes known as the “consumer decision journey” or the “consumer buying path” – is a valuable analytical framework for marketing experts engaged to provide an external expert opinion to inform the finder of fact in litigation matters. The value inherent in the purchase funnel framework is that, unlike most economic analyses or analyses grounded in the strategy literature, the purchase funnel does not treat consumers as making a single discrete decision. Instead, it recognizes that for each decision that any one consumer makes, the consumer must pass through a series of distinct hurdles progressing from awareness to consideration, conversion, and post-purchase. Laying out these steps can be helpful in a large variety of litigation contexts.
This paper shows how social structure shapes many behaviors of low-income Black peoples’ currently labeled “culture.” It refutes both culture of poverty arguments based in welfare dependency and deindustrialization explanations of the post-1960 increase in single-parent Black families. Historically, distinct discrimination experiences in urban versus rural Black enclaves structured distinct child socializations and Black family formations, North and South. Agrarian enclaves socialized conformity to two-parent-families and racist labor markets; urban enclaves socialized resistance to racially stratified labor markets to preserve self-worth, destabilizing families. Any census measure of pre-1960 Black family structure averages low mother-only rates among rural socialized Blacks and high rates among urban socialized Blacks. The 1960-1980 doubling (21% to 41%) of Black children in one-parent families emerged from urbanization converging Blacks toward urban socialized Blacks’ historically high rate. Post-1970 welfare liberalization and/or deindustrialization were exacerbating factors, not causes. Using a family head’s urban/rural residence at age sixteen to proxy socialization location, logistic regressions on 1960s census data confirm hypothesis.
Chapter 13 returns to Mills inexact deductive method, as developed in chapter 10, concedes that it is too dogmatic, but shows how economics can be scientifically respectable, even though economists appear to conform to this method. The peculiarities of theory appraisal in economics follow more from the difficulties of testing in economics than from an aberrant view of confirmation. Although apparent Millians in practice, economists can be good Bayesians or hypothetico-deductivists in principle. Chapter 13 also considers some of the anomalies to which expected utility theory gives rise and provides an introductory overview of the innovations that behavioral economics has brought into the mainstream. This chapter shows how disconfirmation of basic principles of economics is possible and exposes the large and legitimate role that pragmatic factors play in theory appraisal in economics.
Adopting eco-friendly technologies, such as converting lawns to alternative low-input grass species, can reduce household expenditures and mitigate negative environmental impacts at the same time. However, the rate of adoption of these technologies has not been as high as expected. This study develops a behavioral framework to identify barriers to new technology adoption by incorporating both prospect theory and present bias. We apply the framework in a choice experiment to investigate the relative importance of several factors that shape decisions associated with adoption of low-input turfgrass. We find that loss aversion plays a significant role. Though consumers exhibit present bias, long-term benefits still matter to them. Insights from the behavior model suggest that marketing and government programs that promote cost–benefit-efficient technologies should focus on eliminating or reducing potential losses caused by product failure.