Bovine somatotropin (BST), a new technology capable of enhancing a cow's ability to produce milk by 7-23 percent, is expected to be available for commercial use soon. Ex ante survey procedures are used to determine the potential effect of BST on the size distribution of dairy farms in the Southeast. Results of logit analysis indicate a positive link between farm size and (1) farmers' knowledge of BST and (2) intentions to adopt early, suggesting BST will not be scale neutral. An estimated “price elasticity” of -1.8 to -2.1 indicates an elastic demand for the input Price, therefore, may be an effective instrument for attenuating the scale bias.

The potential economic impacts of the introduction of bovine somatotropin (bST) on U.S. milk supply and demand are analyzed using a national model of Class I and Class II milk markets. The results indicate that the introduction of bST will lead to lower milk prices, higher milk production, and larger government purchases of dairy products. Unlike previous economic analyses of bST, this analysis considers both supply and demand effects of bST. The implication is that studies that ignore potential demand-side effects may produce misleading results.

An interregional reactive programming model of the United States dairy industry is used to test the welfare implications of several dairy program changes on milk producers, milk consumers, and taxpayers. The results showed that each of the tested alternatives (price support reduction, price support reduction with frozen minimum Class I price, assessments, and production quotas) could reduce price support expenditures substantially. However, assessments reduced expenditures most effectively in terms of cost to milk producers for the United States generally while price support reduction with frozen minimum Class I price was most efficacious in terms of cost to Southeast producers.

An eleven-region stochastic coefficient econometric model was estimated and used in an optimal control framework to evaluate the effectiveness of the dairy price support program and marketing orders in reducing and stabilizing government purchases of dairy products. The results showed significant pressure on the reduction of the support price both in the presence and absence of Class I differentials. The optimal control model also showed that the drop in price support levels did not dramatically alter the regional distribution of milk production.

With the passage of the Dairy and Tobacco Adjustment Act of 1983, dairy fanner investment in product research, nutrition education, advertising, and promotion in the United States increased from $60 million to $200 million annually. A key decision faced by boards managing these funds is how best to allocate available advertising funds among the various dairy products. In this paper an economic model is developed that shows the allocation of funds among products that would maximize sales in a given market. The model is applied to the New York City market with results suggesting that over the study period diverting funds from fluid milk to cheese advertising would have enhanced milk-equivalent sales in the market by as much as 1.17% or 8.21 million gallons annually. Alternatively, the model suggests that the same sales level could have been achieved with a different allocation of funds resulting in an estimated 14.6% savings in the amount spent advertising the two products.