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  • Chapter 17 - Social Sampling for Judgments and Predictions of Societal Trends

  • from Part V - Sampling as a Tool in Social Environments
  • Edited by Klaus Fiedler, Universität Heidelberg, Peter Juslin, Uppsala Universitet, Sweden, Jerker Denrell, University of Warwick
  • Book:
    Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making
    Published online:
    01 June 2023
    Print publication:
    15 June 2023, pp 385-416

  • Summary

    People have the ability to estimate frequencies of different behaviors, beliefs, and intentions of others, allowing them to fit into their immediate social worlds, learn from, and cooperate with others. However, psychology has produced a long list of apparent biases in social cognition. We show that this apparent contradiction can be resolved by understanding how cognitive processes underlying social judgments interact with the properties of social and task environments. We describe our social sampling model that incorporates this interaction and can explain biases in people’s estimates of broader populations. We also show that asking people about their social circles produces better predictions of elections than asking about their own voting intentions, provides good description of population attributes, and helps predict people’s future voting and vaccination behavior.