The course of Bipolar Disorder (BD) is highly variable, with marked inter and intra-individual differences in symptoms and functioning. In this study, we identified illness trajectories across major clinical domains that could have etiological, prognostic, and therapeutic relevance.

Using the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for Bipolar Disorder (STEP-BD) study, we performed univariate and multivariate trajectory modeling of depressive symptoms, manic symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. Multinomial regression was performed to identify baseline variables associated with poor outcome trajectories.

Depressive symptoms predominated, with most subjects being found in trajectories characterized by various degrees of depressive symptoms and 13% of subjects being classified in a poor outcome ‘persistently depressed’ trajectory. Most subjects experienced few manic symptoms, although approximately 10% of subjects followed a trajectory of persistently manic symptoms. Trajectory analysis of psychosocial functioning showed impairment in most of the sample, with little improvement during follow up. Multi-trajectory analyses highlighted significant impairment in subjects with persistently mixed and persistently depressed trajectories of illness. In general, poor outcome trajectories were marked by lower educational attainment, higher unemployment and disability, and a greater likelihood of adverse clinical features (rapid cycling and suicide attempts) and comorbid diagnoses (anxiety disorders, PTSD, and substance abuse/dependence disorders).

Subjects with BD can be classified into several trajectories of clinically relevant domains that are prognostically relevant and show differing degrees of associations with a broad range of negative clinical risk factors. The highest level of psychosocial disability was found in subjects with chronic mixed and depressive symptoms, who show limited improvement despite guideline-based treatment.