In 2016, imported Zika virus (ZIKV) infections and the presence of a potentially competent mosquito vector (Aedes albopictus) implied that ZIKV transmission in New York City (NYC) was possible. The NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene developed contingency plans for a urosurvey to rule out ongoing local transmission as quickly as possible if a locally acquired case of confirmed ZIKV infection was suspected. We identified tools to (1) rapidly estimate the population living in any given 150-m radius (i.e. within the typical flight distance of an Aedes mosquito) and (2) calculate the sample size needed to test and rule out the further local transmission. As we expected near-zero ZIKV prevalence, methods relying on the normal approximation to the binomial distribution were inappropriate. Instead, we assumed a hypergeometric distribution, 10 missed cases at maximum, a urine assay sensitivity of 92.6% and 100% specificity. Three suspected example risk areas were evaluated with estimated population sizes of 479–4,453, corresponding to a minimum of 133–1244 urine samples. This planning exercise improved our capacity for ruling out local transmission of an emerging infection in a dense, urban environment where all residents in a suspected risk area cannot be feasibly sampled.

Dengue is the fastest spreading mosquito-transmitted disease in the world. In China, Guangzhou City is believed to be the most important epicenter of dengue outbreaks although the transmission patterns are still poorly understood. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model incorporating external regressors to examine the association between the monthly number of locally acquired dengue infections and imported cases, mosquito densities, temperature and precipitation in Guangzhou. In multivariate analysis, imported cases and minimum temperature (both at lag 0) were both associated with the number of locally acquired infections (P < 0.05). This multivariate model performed best, featuring the lowest fitting root mean squared error (RMSE) (0.7520), AIC (393.7854) and test RMSE (0.6445), as well as the best effect in model validation for testing outbreak with a sensitivity of 1.0000, a specificity of 0.7368 and a consistency rate of 0.7917. Our findings suggest that imported cases and minimum temperature are two key determinants of dengue local transmission in Guangzhou. The modelling method can be used to predict dengue transmission in non-endemic countries and to inform dengue prevention and control strategies.

The host specificity and host sharing of avian haemoparasites (genera Haemoproteus and Plasmodium) is still poorly known, although they infect a large proportion of several studied bird populations. This study used molecular techniques to detect haemoparasites in marsh warblers and in other passerines that feed in reed beds, at 4 sites in Portugal. The host-specificity of the parasite lineages was analysed and compared with other cases described in the literature to assess whether apparent host specificity changes according to the studied system. Nine lineages of Haemoproteus and 15 of Plasmodium were found, of which only 10 Plasmodium were proven to have local transmission. Each lineage was confined to a distinct set of host species. The distribution of parasites in the host species was non-nested, meaning that specialist lineages did not always share hosts with generalists. The most prevalent lineages were those with a wider host range, indicating that the ability to infect more hosts will enhance a parasite's prevalence in its entire host range. We also found that in our areas, a specialist parasite (H. MW1) appears to have a more generalist character than described in the literature, suggesting that a parasite's apparent specialization can depend on the type of host species sampled.