The conservation performance of protected areas (PAs) is typically measured according to whether species are likely to be present within PAs. However, to attain the goal of long-term conservation it is important to consider the performance of PAs in terms of their ability to support the persistence of the species they contain. We used the concept of minimum viable population (MVP) size to examine the potential for PAs within a large national PA network to support mammal species over the long term. By developing habitat models for each species and estimating the area required to support the MVP size for each species, we identified whether each PA had sufficient habitat to meet the species’ requirements. We found that as a whole the PA network is able to support at least one viable population for all species studied. However, the extent of protection offered to species by the PA network varies considerably, with many PAs not able to support viable populations of individual species on their own. By understanding the capacity of PAs to provide long-term protection to species, our findings can guide strategies to increase the resilience of PA networks as a whole, including by improving habitat quality within and connectivity between PAs.

The strong mechanistic relationship between climatic factors and seed dormancy and germination suggests that forecast climatic changes will significantly affect seed bank persistence. This review focuses on the potential impact of changing temperature, rainfall and fire regimes on the longevity of long-term persistent seed-banks. Currently, there are few studies investigating the mechanistic responses of demographic processes, such as seed-bank dynamics, to forecast climate change. However, from the work that has been published, several key points have been highlighted. First, increased air temperatures will produce significantly higher soil temperatures in open and sparsely vegetated habitats. Some evidence shows that this could accelerate the decline of seed viability and compromise bet-hedging strategies of species in dryland regions. Second, changes to rainfall season may determine the relative success of recruitment, with lower levels of success producing net losses to seed bank longevity. Finally, higher temperatures are likely to produce increased fire frequency, compromising the persistence of plant populations dependent on long-lived seed banks. Improving our understanding of both the mechanistic response and adaptive capacity of seed banks to climate change will provide a solid basis for improved predictions of future species distributions and risk of extinction, particularly in ecosystems subjected to temporally stochastic disturbances. It is necessary to develop functional groups based on key life-history trait responses to changing environmental conditions, to enable broader-scale predictions of distribution and persistence in the future.