Michelia lacei W.W. Smith, a magnolia species categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is subject to severe disturbance. We carried out field surveys and a review of literature records to present a detailed description of the current status of M. lacei. We then predicted the potential distribution of M. lacei under different climatic scenarios based on 60 occurrence records (53 recorded during our field surveys and 7 earlier records) and 19 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database. We selected 18 locations and four bioclimatic variables for model training. Temperature seasonality and annual temperature range were the most influential variables for predicting the potential distribution of the species. We used MaxEnt to model distribution under current climate conditions and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios in four future time periods to determine the effects of future climate change on the habitat suitable for the species. We predict areas of moderately and highly suitable habitat will gradually decrease over time. We recommend increased in situ and ex situ conservation efforts to mitigate this habitat decline and protect populations of M. lacei.

Some parasitic plants are major pests in agriculture, but how this might be affected by climate change remains largely unknown. In this study, we assessed this question for five generalist holoparasitic Cuscuta species (smoothseed alfalfa dodder [Cuscuta approximata Bab.], alfalfa dodder [Cuscuta europaea L.], soybean dodder [Cuscuta chinensis C. Wright], Peruvian dodder [Cuscuta australis R. Br.], and Japanese dodder [Cuscuta japonica Choisy]) and two of their main Leguminosae host crop species (soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] and alfalfa [Medicago sativa L.]. For each of the five Cuscuta species and the two crop species, we ran MaxEnt models, using climatic and soil variables to predict their potential current distributions and potential future distributions for 2070. We ran species distribution models for all seven species for multiple climate change scenarios, and tested for changes in the overlap of suitable ranges of each crop with the five parasites. We found that annual mean temperature and isothermality are the main bioclimatic factors determining the suitable habitats of the Cuscuta species and their hosts. For both host species, the marginally to optimally suitable area will increase by 2070 for all four representative concentration pathway scenarios. For most of the Cuscuta species, the marginally to optimally suitable area will also increase. While the suitable areas for both the hosts and the parasites will increase overall, Schoener’s D, indicating the relative overlap in suitable area, will change only marginally. However, the absolute area of potential niche overlap may increase up to 6-fold by 2070. Overall, our results indicate that larger parts of the globe will become suitable for both host species, but that they could also suffer from Cuscuta parasitism in larger parts of their suitable ranges.

The Cortes geoduck (Panopea globosa) has been considered a Gulf of California (GC) endemic but anecdotal and unpublished evidence has suggested its presence in Bahía Magdalena (BM), on the Pacific coast of southern Baja California. Establishing the identity of geoduck clams and their distribution limits is not only of clear biological significance to understand their structural and functional variation, but is also of consequence for their conservation and management, given the multi-million dollar fishery they support in north-west Mexico. We analysed Panopea clams from Mexican populations, including BM, using an integrative approach including genetics, morphometrics, and an ecological niche model. Our genetic results (restriction fragment length polymorphisms of nuclear ribosomal DNA and mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I sequences) clearly identify BM geoducks as P. globosa, implying a significant geographical range expansion outside of the GC and refuting its status as endemic to the Gulf. On the other hand, clams from BM were phenotypically different (shell significantly higher) from other Mexican P. globosa and Panopea generosa specimens, which may account for the confusion in their morphological identification. The ecological niche model for P. globosa, integrating ecological and distributional data from the GC, revealed a very low probability (<10%) that this species could successfully occupy BM. Our results and those of others suggest that the Cortes geoduck population in BM may be adapted to specific environmental conditions differing from those experienced by conspecifics inside the Gulf and is likely isolated. This is highly relevant for the management plans of Mexican geoducks.