The effect of solar radiation, rainfall and cannibalism on the disappearance of eggs and larvae of the cereal stemborer Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) were studied. Disappearance and nonviability of egg batches was higher on plants exposed to solar radiation than on shaded plants. Significantly fewer small larvae were recovered from plants exposed to rainfall than from shielded plants. Cannibalism among larvae of the same size was not common except at high larval densities. Contrary to the common belief that disappearance is the result of predation, these studies show that solar radiation and rainfall might also play an important role in the disappearance of stemborer eggs and small larvae.

The relationship between seasonal numbers of outbreaks of African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) in Kenya and Tanzania, and early season rainfall in source areas has been examined using records for 21 seasons. Significant inverse relationships were found between numbers of Kenya outbreaks and early season rains in the Kisumu area, and between numbers of Tanzania outbreaks and early season rains in the Morogoro and Mtwara areas. Total Kenya and Tanzania outbreak numbers were significantly inversely related to early season rainfall for 8 areas combined. These results suggest that early season rainfall totals, either from specific likely source areas or countrywide, could be used in January to give a seasonal forecast of likely numbers of armyworm outbreaks during the rest of the season. Seasons with more than average numbers of outbreaks often follow poor early season rains and visa versa. Further work is needed to establish biological causes of this apparent relationship.