A disproportionate share of the health impacts of COVID-19 has been borne by older adults, particularly those in long-term care facilities (LTCs). Vaccination has been critical to efforts to combat this issue, but as we begin to emerge from this pandemic, questions remain about how to protect the health of residents of LTC and assisted living facilities proactively in order to prevent such a disaster from occurring again. Vaccination, not just against COVID-19, but also against other vaccine-preventable illness, will be a key component of this effort. However, there are currently substantial gaps in the uptake of vaccines recommended for older adults. Technology offers an opportunity to assist in filling these vaccination gaps. Our experiences in Fredericton, New Brunswick suggest that a digital immunization solution would facilitate better uptake of adult vaccines for older adults in assisted and independent living facilities and would help policy and decision makers to identify coverage gaps and develop interventions to protect these individuals.

This study investigates neighbourhood variation in rates of pneumococcal bacteraemia and community-level factors associated with neighbourhood heterogeneity in disease risk. We analysed data from 1416 adult and paediatric cases of pneumococcal bacteraemia collected during 2005–2008 from a population-based hospital surveillance network in metropolitan Philadelphia. Cases were geocoded using residential address to measure disease incidence by neighbourhood and identify potential neighbourhood-level risk factors. Overall incidence of pneumococcal bacteraemia was 36·8 cases/100 000 population and varied significantly (0–67·8 cases/100 000 population) in 281 neighbourhoods. Increased disease incidence was associated with higher population density [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1·10/10 000 people per mile2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·0–1·19], higher percent black population (per 10% increase) (IRR 1·07, 95% CI 1·04–1·09), population aged ⩽5 years (IRR 3·49, CI 1·8–5·18) and population aged ⩾65 years (IRR 1·19, CI 1·00–1·38). After adjusting for these characteristics, there was no significant difference in neighbourhood disease rates. This study demonstrates substantial small-area variation in pneumococcal bacteraemia risk that appears to be explained by neighbourhood sociodemographic characteristics. Identifying neighbourhoods with increased disease risk may provide valuable information to optimize implementation of prevention strategies.

Objectives: We explore the policy implications of probabilistic sensitivity analysis in cost-effectiveness analysis by applying simulation methods to a decision model.

Methods: We present the multiway sensitivity analysis results of a study of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against pneumococcal bacteremia in the elderly. We then execute a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of the cost-effectiveness ratio by specifying posterior distributions for the uncertain parameters in our decision analysis model. In order to estimate probability intervals, we rank the numerical values of the simulated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) to take into account preferences along the cost-effectiveness plane.

Results: The 95% probability intervals for the ICER were generally much narrower than the difference between the best case and worst case results from a multiway sensitivity analysis. Although the multiway sensitivity analysis had indicated that, in the worst case, vaccination in the 85 and older age group was not acceptable from a policy standpoint, probabilistic methods indicated that the cost-effectiveness of vaccination was below $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year in greater than 92% of the simulations and below $100,000 in greater than 95% of the simulations.

Conclusions: Probabilistic methods can supplement multiway sensitivity analyses to provide a more comprehensive picture of the uncertainty associated with cost-effectiveness ratios and thereby inform policy decisions.