Recent falls in suicide rates should be accompanied by a decline in the prevalence of suicidal ideation.

We used a pseudo-cohort analytic strategy to examine trends in suicidal ideation measured identically in 2000 and 2007, in nationally representative English probability samples of adults aged ⩾ 16 years. Suicidal ideation included tiredness of life, death wishes and thoughts of suicide. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate trends in age-specific prevalence of suicidal ideation in the past year and past week between 2000 and 2007.

There were 6799 participants aged 16–71 years in 2000, and 6815 participants aged 16–78 years in 2007. There was little evidence of trends in prevalence of suicidal ideation, with the exception of women aged 44–50 years in 2007, whose prevalence was unusually high. Prevalence of suicidal ideation in the past year followed a W-shaped profile with age, with peaks at the transition to adulthood, in the forties, and in the oldest participants.

Despite falling suicide rates, suicidal ideation did not decline overall between 2000 and 2007. This may indicate the success of the National Suicide Prevention Strategy. Women aged 44–50 years in 2007 were, however, particularly prone to suicidal ideation. As they also have the highest age-adjusted prevalence of common mental disorders and the highest female suicide rate, there are clear implications for treatment access, availability and delivery in primary care.

The National Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (NPMS) programme was partly designed to monitor trends in mental disorders, including depression, with comparable data spanning 1993 to 2007. Findings already published from this programme suggest that concerns about increasing prevalence of common mental disorders (CMDs) may be unfounded. This article focuses on depression and tests the hypothesis that successive birth cohorts experience the same prevalence of depression as they age.

We carried out a pseudo-cohort analysis of a sequence of three cross-sectional surveys of the English household population using identical diagnostic instruments. The main outcome was ICD-10 depressive episode or disorder. Secondary outcomes were the depression subscales of the Clinical Interview Schedule – Revised (CIS-R).

There were 8670, 6977 and 6815 participants in 1993, 2000 and 2007 respectively. In men, the prevalence of depression increased between cohorts born in 1943–1949 and 1950–1956 [odds ratio (OR) 2.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4–4.2], then remained relatively stable across subsequent cohorts. In women, there was limited evidence of change in prevalence of depression. Women born in 1957–1963, surveyed aged 44–50 years in 2007, had exceptionally high prevalence. It is not clear whether this represents a trend or a quirk of sampling.

There is no evidence of an increase in the prevalence of depression in male cohorts born since 1950. In women, there is limited evidence of increased prevalence. Demand for mental health services may stabilize or even fall for men.