We consider the optimal prediction problem of stopping a spectrally negative Lévy process as close as possible to a given distance $b \geq 0$ from its ultimate supremum, under a squared-error penalty function. Under some mild conditions, the solution is fully and explicitly characterised in terms of scale functions. We find that the solution has an interesting non-trivial structure: if b is larger than a certain threshold then it is optimal to stop as soon as the difference between the running supremum and the position of the process exceeds a certain level (less than b), while if b is smaller than this threshold then it is optimal to stop immediately (independent of the running supremum and position of the process). We also present some examples.

We study the dual model with capital injection under the additional condition that the dividend strategy is absolutely continuous. We consider a refraction–reflection strategy that pays dividends at the maximal rate whenever the surplus is above a certain threshold, while capital is injected so that it stays non-negative. The resulting controlled surplus process becomes the spectrally positive version of the refracted–reflected process recently studied by Pérez and Yamazaki (2015). We study various fluctuation identities of this process and prove the optimality of the refraction–reflection strategy. Numerical results on the optimal dividend problem are also given.

In this paper we study the optimal dividend problem for a company whose surplus process evolves as a spectrally positive Lévy process before dividends are deducted. This model includes the dual model of the classical risk model and the dual model with diffusion as special cases. We assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to an admissible strategy whose dividend rate is bounded by a constant. The objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividends which are paid to the shareholders until the company is ruined. We show that the optimal dividend strategy is formed by a threshold strategy.

We revisit the dividend payment problem in the dual model of Avanzi et al. ([2–4]). Using the fluctuation theory of spectrally positive Lévy processes, we give a short exposition in which we show the optimality of barrier strategies for all such Lévy processes. Moreover, we characterize the optimal barrier using the functional inverse of a scale function. We also consider the capital injection problem of [4] and show that its value function has a very similar form to the one in which the horizon is the time of ruin.

Using fluctuation theory, we solve the two-sided exit problem and identify the ruin probability for a general spectrally negative Lévy risk process with tax payments of a loss-carry-forward type. We study arbitrary moments of the discounted total amount of tax payments and determine the surplus level to start taxation which maximises the expected discounted aggregate income for the tax authority in this model. The results considerably generalise those for the Cramér-Lundberg risk model with tax.

In this short paper, we show how fluctuation identities for Lévy processes with no positive jumps yield the distribution of the present value of dividends paid until ruin in a Lévy insurance risk model with a dividend barrier.