5 - Coercion in Cross-Strait Relations

Summary

Chapter 5 looks at Chinese coercion regarding Taiwan, involving foreign arms sales to Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995 and 1996. China used moderate coercion measures toward the United States over arms sales to Taiwan until 2008. The cost-balancing theory does not perfectly explain the 1992 case of US weapons sales to Taiwan, which instead highlighted economic concerns. As for the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China escalated to militarized coercion, the magnitude of which was the greatest among all cases of Chinese coercion concerning territorial disputes, Taiwan, and Tibet in the post-Cold War era, because Taiwan is a “core interest.” This chapter demonstrates the significance of the issue importance variable in issues involving Taiwan and shows that the cost-balancing theory travels beyond territorial disputes. This suggests that because Taiwan continues to be one of China’s core interests, it is highly likely China will resort to military coercion again in the future. In particular, if Taiwan decides to pursue judiciary independence, then it is highly likely that China will resort to military coercion, or even the use of force.