Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-lrblm Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-28T02:48:56.183Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

21 - Shrinking Lake Urmia

Causes, Future Projection and Implications

from Part III - Sustainable Water Management under Future Uncertainty

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2022

By
Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari ,
Qiuhong Tang ,
Guoyong Leng  and
Ximeng Xu
Edited by
Qiuhong Tang  and
Guoyong Leng
Qiuhong Tang
Affiliation:
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
Guoyong Leng
Affiliation:
Oxford University Centre for the Environment
Get access

Summary

Lake Urmia, in the north-west of Iran, used to be the second-largest hypersaline lake around the world. Over the past few decades, unsustainable water resources planning and management as well as climate variability have led to a dramatic shrinkage of the lake. In this chapter, we describe the past and present situation of the lake through an analysis of in-situ and global datasets. Furthermore, we provide a brief review of the literature on the basin and describe the Urmia lake restoration programme (ULRP) measures taken to restore the lake. The precipitation and temperature data from 17 CORDEX models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to project the climatic condition of the basin by the end of the century. The results from CORDEX model simulations under all scenarios suggest changes in total amounts of precipitation are not likely to vary significantly. Conversely, increases in the basin temperature are expected under all scenarios. Therefore, an increase in evaporation from the lake and higher water demands are expected in the future. Consequently, the management of water demand in the basin is key to avoid a potential future deterioration of the current situation.

Keywords

Climate changeClimate variabilityCORDEXLake Urmia basinUnsustainable water management
Type
Chapter
Information
Climate Risk and Sustainable Water Management , pp. 465 - 482
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abbaspour, M., & Nazaridoust, A. (2007). Determination of environmental water requirements of Lake Urmia, Iran: An ecological approach. International Journal of Environmental Studies 64(2): 161–169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
AghaKouchak, A., Norouzi, H., Madani, K., et al. (2015). Aral Sea syndrome desiccates Lake Urmia: Call for action. Journal of Great Lakes Research 41(1): 307–311.Google Scholar
Ahmadi, M., Haddad, O. B., & Loáiciga, H. A. (2015). Adaptive reservoir operation rules under climatic change. Water Resources Management 29(4): 1247–1266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alborzi, A., Mirchi, A., Moftakhari, H., et al. (2018). Climate-informed environmental inflows to revive a drying lake facing meteorological and anthropogenic droughts. Environmental Research Letters 13(8): 084010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amirataee, B., & Zeinalzadeh, K. (2016). Trends analysis of quantitative and qualitative changes in groundwater with considering the autocorrelation coefficients in west of Lake Urmia, Iran. Environmental Earth Sciences 75(5): 371.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amiri, V., Nakhaei, M., Lak, R., & Kholghi, M. (2016). Geophysical, isotopic, and hydrogeochemical tools to identify potential impacts on coastal groundwater resources from Urmia hypersaline Lake, NW Iran. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 23(16): 16738–16760.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Azarnivand, A., & Banihabib, M. E. (2017). A multi-level strategic group decision making for understanding and analysis of sustainable watershed planning in response to environmental perplexities. Group Decision and Negotiation 26(3): 629–648.Google Scholar
Azarnivand, A., Camporese, M., Alaghmand, S., & Daly, E. (2020). Simulated response of an intermittent stream to rainfall frequency patterns. Hydrological Processes 34(3): 615–632,CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bavil, S. S., Zeinalzadeh, K., & Hessari, B. (2018). The changes in the frequency of daily precipitation in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 133(1–2): 205–214.Google Scholar
Chaudhari, S., Felfelani, F., Shin, S., & Pokhrel, Y. (2018). Climate and anthropogenic contributions to the desiccation of the second largest saline lake in the twentieth century. Journal of Hydrology 560: 342–353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Danesh-Yazdi, M., & Ataie-Ashtiani, B. (2019). Lake Urmia crisis and restoration plan: Planning without appropriate data and model is gambling. Journal of Hydrology 576: 639–651.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delju, A. H., Ceylan, A., Piguet, E., & Rebetez, M. (2013). Observed climate variability and change in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 111(1–2): 285–296.Google Scholar
Farokhnia, A., Morid, S., Abbaspour, K., & Delavar, M. (2018). Development of SWAT-LU model for simulation of Urmia lake water level decrease and assessment of the proposed actions for its restoration (role of anthropogenic and climatic factors on hydrological change of the basin and lake). Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage 12(5): 1041–1058.Google Scholar
Fathian, F., Morid, S., & Kahya, E. (2015). Identification of trends in hydrological and climatic variables in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 119(3–4): 443–464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fazel, N., Berndtsson, R., Uvo, C. B., Madani, K., & Kløve, B. (2018). Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran’s Lake Urmia basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 132(1–2): 363–373.Google Scholar
Ghale, Y. A. G., Altunkaynak, A., & Unal, A. (2018). Investigation anthropogenic impacts and climate factors on drying up of Urmia Lake using water budget and drought analysis. Water Resources Management 32(1): 325–337.Google Scholar
Gholampour, A., Nabizadeh, R., Hassanvand, M. S., et al. (2015). Characterization of saline dust emission resulted from Urmia Lake drying. Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering 13(1): 82.Google Scholar
Guardian (2015). Lake Urmia: How Iran’s most famous lake is disappearing. Available from www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/jan/23/iran-lake-urmia-drying-up-new-research-scientists-urge-actionv (Last accessed 14 December 2019).Google Scholar
Henareh Khalyani, A., Mayer, A. L., & Norman, E. S. (2014). Water flows toward power: Socioecological degradation of Lake Urmia, Iran. Society & Natural Resources 27(7): 759–767.Google Scholar
Herrera-Pantoja, M., & Hiscock, K. M. (2015). Projected impacts of climate change on water availability indicators in a semi-arid region of central Mexico. Environmental Science & Policy 54: 81–89.Google Scholar
Hesami, A., & Amini, A. (2016). Changes in irrigated land and agricultural water use in the Lake Urmia basin. Lake and Reservoir Management 32(3): 288–296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoodfar, H., & Assadpour, S. (2000). The politics of population policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Studies in Family Planning 31(1): 19–34.Google Scholar
Hosseini-Moghari, S. M., Araghinejad, S., & Azarnivand, A. (2017). Drought forecasting using data-driven methods and an evolutionary algorithm. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 3(4): 1675–1689.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hosseini-Moghari, S. M., Araghinejad, S. & Ebrahimi, K. (2018). Monthly precipitation assessment: A misleading tool for understanding the effects of climate change. 8th Global FRIEND-Water Conference, Beijing, China, 6–9 November 2018.Google Scholar
Hosseini-Moghari, S. M., Araghinejad, S., Tourian, M. J., Ebrahimi, K., & Döll, P. (2020). Quantifying the impacts of human water use and climate variations on recent drying of Lake Urmia basin: The value of different sets of spaceborne and in situ data for calibrating a global hydrological model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24(4): 1939–1956.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kamali, M., & Youneszadeh Jalili, S. (2015). Investigation of land use changes in Lake Urmia Basin using remotely sensed images. Report of Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP) (in Persian).Google Scholar
Karbassi, A., Bidhendi, G. N., Pejman, A., & Bidhendi, M. E. (2010). Environmental impacts of desalination on the ecology of Lake Urmia. Journal of Great Lakes Research 36(3): 419–424.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khalili, K., Tahoudi, M. N., Mirabbasi, R., & Ahmadi, F. (2016). Investigation of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Iran over the last half century. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 30(4): 1205–1221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Madani, K. (2014). Water management in Iran: What is causing the looming crisis? Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 4(4): 315–328.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Madani, K., AghaKouchak, A., & Mirchi, A. (2016). Iran’s socio-economic drought: Challenges of a water-bankrupt nation. Iranian Studies 49(6): 997–1016.Google Scholar
Mardi, A. H., Khaghani, A., MacDonald, A. B., et al. (2018). The Lake Urmia environmental disaster in Iran: A look at aerosol pollution. Science of The Total Environment 633: 42–9.Google Scholar
Pengra, B. (2012). The drying of Iran’s Lake Urmia and its environmental consequences. UNEP-GRID, Sioux Falls, UNEP Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS).Google Scholar
Rahimi, J., Ebrahimpour, M., & Khalili, A. (2013). Spatial changes of extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 112(3–4): 409–418.Google Scholar
Saboohi, R., Soltani, S., & Khodagholi, M. (2012). Trend analysis of temperature parameters in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 109(3–4): 529–547.Google Scholar
Saemian, P., Faridzad, M., Youneszadeh, S., et al. (2015). Estimation of evapotranspiration, water saving and agricultural water consumption at Urmia Lake Basin, 2010. Report of ULRP (in Persian).Google Scholar
Save, H., Bettadpur, S., & Tapley, B. D. (2016). High‐resolution CSR GRACE RL05 mascons. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 121(10): 7547–7569.Google Scholar
Shadkam, S. (2017). Preserving Urmia Lake in a Changing World: Reconciling Anthropogenic and Climate Drivers by Hydrological Modelling and Policy Assessment. Wageningen, Netherlands: Wageningen University.Google Scholar
Shadkam, S., Ludwig, F., van Oel, P., Kirmit, Ç., & Kabat, P. (2016). Impacts of climate change and water resources development on the declining inflow into Iran’s Urmia Lake. Journal of Great Lakes Research 42(5): 942–952.Google Scholar
Tourian, M. J., Elmi, O., Chen, Q., et al. (2015). A spaceborne multisensor approach to monitor the desiccation of Lake Urmia in Iran. Remote Sensing of Environment 156: 349–360.Google Scholar
ULRP (2015a). The trend of Lake Urmia changes. Available from http://ulrp.sharif.ir/fa (Last accessed 20 July 2020) (in Persian).Google Scholar
ULRP (2015b). Status of water resources and water consumption in the basin. Available from http://ulrp.sharif.ir (Last accessed 20 July 2020) (in Persian).Google Scholar
Vaheddoost, B., & Aksoy, H. (2018). Interaction of groundwater with Lake Urmia in Iran. Hydrological Processes 32(21): 3283–3295.Google Scholar
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., et al. (2011). The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change 109(1–2): 5.Google Scholar
Wang, X. J., Zhang, J. Y., Shahid, S., et al. (2016). Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 21(1): 81–99.Google Scholar
Zahedi, S., Azarnivand, A., & Chitsaz, N. (2017). Groundwater quality classification derivation using multi-criteria-decision-making techniques. Ecological Indicators 78: 243–252.Google Scholar
Zeinoddini, M., Tofighi, M. A., & Vafaee, F. (2009). Evaluation of dike-type causeway impacts on the flow and salinity regimes in Urmia Lake, Iran. Journal of Great Lakes Research 35(1): 13–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×