12 - The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Energy is essential to our way of life, to economic progress, and to raising and maintaining living standards. The pursuit of economic growth and a better quality of life in developing countries is driving global energy demand. New supplies of reliable, affordable energy are needed. At the same time, concerns about future energy supply and climate change have heightened interest in energy supply options, energy prices and the effect of energy use on the environment. It is essential that industry plays an active role in the ongoing dialogue about the future of energy — one that is grounded in reality, focused on the long term and intent on finding viable solutions.

Each year, ExxonMobil prepares a detailed, long-term outlook of worldwide economic growth and energy demand. It uses this outlook to help plan its business. In order to develop the most comprehensive and accurate outlook, it incorporates the views of organizations such as the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy — as well as those of other leading economic and energy experts — in its research.

ExxonMobil's outlook, presented in this chapter, extends to the year 2030.

ENERGY OUTLOOK BASIS

ExxonMobil assesses the energy demand outlook for nearly 100 countries, with the balance of the world covered in 15–20 country groups. To determine future demand for oil, gas, coal, electricity and more, it looks at economic drivers such as gross domestic product and population. Those factors are important because energy demand is closely linked to economic development. As societies develop, their energy needs expand as well.

To develop its final conclusions, ExxonMobil applies factors for efficiency improvement, and considers current trends and future expectations in consumption patterns, including issues such as competition between fuels and availability of supply. It also evaluates the supply outlook. Working closely with experts within ExxonMobil and with external data, it establishes resource estimates for both oil and gas and model production profiles for key countries.