
Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Contributors
- Foreword by Sydel Silverman and Michael A. Little
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Human biologists in the archives: demography, health, nutrition and genetics in historical populations
- 2 The use of archives in the study of microevolution: changing demography and epidemiology in Escazú, Costa Rica
- 3 Anthropometric data and population history
- 4 For everything there is a season: Chumash Indian births, marriages, and deaths at the Alta California missions
- 5 Children of the poor: infant mortality in the Erie County Almshouse during the mid nineteenth century
- 6 Worked to the bone: the biomechanical consequences of ‘labor therapy’ at a nineteenth century asylum
- 7 Monitored growth: anthropometrics and health history records at a private New England middle school, 1935–1960
- 8 Scarlet fever epidemics of the nineteenth century: a case of evolved pathogenic virulence?
- 9 The ecology of a health crisis: Gibraltar and the 1865 cholera epidemic
- 10 War and population composition in Åland, Finland
- 11 Infectious diseases in the historical archives: a modeling approach
- 12 Where were the women?
- 13 Malnutrition among northern peoples of Canada in the 1940s: an ecological and economic disaster
- 14 Archival research in physical anthropology
- Index
- References
11 - Infectious diseases in the historical archives: a modeling approach
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 12 August 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Contributors
- Foreword by Sydel Silverman and Michael A. Little
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Human biologists in the archives: demography, health, nutrition and genetics in historical populations
- 2 The use of archives in the study of microevolution: changing demography and epidemiology in Escazú, Costa Rica
- 3 Anthropometric data and population history
- 4 For everything there is a season: Chumash Indian births, marriages, and deaths at the Alta California missions
- 5 Children of the poor: infant mortality in the Erie County Almshouse during the mid nineteenth century
- 6 Worked to the bone: the biomechanical consequences of ‘labor therapy’ at a nineteenth century asylum
- 7 Monitored growth: anthropometrics and health history records at a private New England middle school, 1935–1960
- 8 Scarlet fever epidemics of the nineteenth century: a case of evolved pathogenic virulence?
- 9 The ecology of a health crisis: Gibraltar and the 1865 cholera epidemic
- 10 War and population composition in Åland, Finland
- 11 Infectious diseases in the historical archives: a modeling approach
- 12 Where were the women?
- 13 Malnutrition among northern peoples of Canada in the 1940s: an ecological and economic disaster
- 14 Archival research in physical anthropology
- Index
- References
Summary
Introduction
Human biologists, especially those studying demography and disease in past populations, have long used historical archives to learn more about the populations they are studying. A variety of historical and statistical techniques have been used to analyze and interpret data derived from the archives. Mathematical and computer modeling are approaches that have only rarely been used, but they can provide interesting and valuable insights not generally possible with other methods. In the following I first discuss the nature of models in general and mathematical models in particular. This is followed by an introduction to several of the most commonly used approaches to mathematical and computer modeling in the social sciences and a selective overview of the use of these approaches to study infectious diseases in human populations. Finally, I illustrate in some detail the process of model development and analysis, drawing upon work I have done in conjunction with Ann Herring on the spread of the 1918–19 influenza epidemic in central Canada.
What is a model?
People often use the word ‘model’ very loosely and in different ways. To some degree, the lax usage of the word reflects both real ambiguities in the concept and the use of one word to designate several related ideas. At the most general level, any model can be thought of as an object or concept that is used to represent something else. Models simplify reality and aid in determining the role and importance of factors that influence the real world.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Human Biologists in the ArchivesDemography, Health, Nutrition and Genetics in Historical Populations, pp. 234 - 265Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2002