13 - Climate Change and the Arctic: A Study of Paradoxical Linkages in Complex Systems

Summary

Links between the Arctic and the Earth’s climate system generate several paradoxes. Despite the low level of anthropogenic emissions of GHGs from the Arctic, it plays a critical role in the dynamics of the Earth’s climate system. The principal drivers of climate change are non-Arctic, but climate change impacts show up sooner and more dramatically in the Arctic, making it ground zero in efforts to address the challenge of climate adaptation. Ironically, these changes have also increased the accessibility of the massive reserves of hydrocarbons located in the circumpolar north. The Arctic Council has sought to address these concerns by monitoring the course of climate change in the Arctic and bringing together representatives of major GHG emitters to consider options for addressing climate change, but the council is limited in terms of authority and resources; Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted its activities. The paradoxical links arising in this case are characteristic of complex systems more generally and highlight the importance of developing the ability to respond agilely when needs and opportunities to deal effectively with rapidly changing conditions arise.