Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 January 2010
Introduction
The emergence of HIV/AIDS in the mid-1980s challenged the theoretical basis of epidemiology. From the beginning of the epidemic, HIV/AIDS imposed its rules by successfully attacking and eluding host defence mechanisms, by infecting all strata of different populations and continents in successive epidemic waves of variable amplitude, and by interacting with many other diseases. The propensity of the infection to spread and be maintained in the population, and the difficulty in altering its course with prevention efforts, has forced scientists to develop innovative methodological and preventive approaches to help understand and control the spread of HIV/AIDS.
In this chapter we illustrate from an epidemiological perspective how progress has been made in understanding and controlling the transmission of HIV/AIDS. The primary aim of epidemiology can be split into four areas: to characterise patterns of disease spread (descriptive epidemiology); to understand the factors underlying its spread (theoretical epidemiology); to predict its future course in the absence of intervention; and to evaluate the best options for treatment and control. A great deal has already been written on the first of these areas characterising the spread of this new disease throughout the world. Our focus in this chapter is therefore on the latter three aspects. Throughout the chapter, our emphasis is on the use of theoretical models of HIV/AIDS transmission, which have been instrumental in improving our understanding of the factors allowing the disease to persist and spread, in understanding the course of the disease, and in evaluating the effectiveness of various control strategies.
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